Washington On One - May 5, 2025

THE LEDE:  Trump nominates Waltz to be UN ambassador, after canning him as National Security Advisor and temporarily replacing him with the Sec of State (Rubio now wears four hats — secretary of state, acting national security adviser, USAID acting administrator and interim leader of the National Archives. And those are just his formal titles)…Trump sends a scorched-earth budget plan. GOP lawmakers hate it already…Trump’s use of Alien Enemies Act for swift deportations is illegal, Trump-appointed judge rules… U.S. and Ukraine sign agreement creating investment fund… Judge frees Columbia student activist whom Trump administration wants to deport… The next round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran set for this weekend in were postponed for “logistical reasons,” Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi said on X… Rubio calls officials in India, Pakistan in push to defuse crisis…Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party won the federal election, a stunning turnaround that began with President Trump’s tariffs and threats of annexation. Carney’s rival, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, not only lost the federal election, but also lost the seat in Parliament he’s held for 20 years…Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) will step aside as the ranking member of the House Oversight Committee after just four months in the role, as he fights cancer…President Trump said on Truth Social last evening that he's directing federal departments to rebuild and reopen Alcatraz, California's prison-turned-tourist-attraction, "to house America's most ruthless and violent Offenders."..The president also said he's ordering administration officials to start the process of imposing a "100% Tariff" on any movie produced outside the U.S., America’s leading man, Nick Cage (clearly) may have some thoughts here…

THE WEEK AHEAD:   Congress back in town. The 3 key House committee mark-ups on reconciliation have been pushed to next week at the earliest (Ways & Means, Agriculture and Energy & Commerce)…Canada PM Carney to meet Trump on Tues at WH… Cabinet officials to testify at a series of House Appropriations hearings… Bills to rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America (H.R. 276) and limit spending on institutions of higher education that have a relationship with Confucius Institutes (H.R. 881) will be teed up for floor votes in the House Rules Committee… Trump’s Social Security Administration commissioner pick Frank Bisignano will get a Senate confirmation vote tomorrow, after senators advanced his nomination by a 50-45 vote last week.  A Biden-era rubber manufacturing emissions standard could be overturned by the Senate when it votes this week on a Congressional Review Act resolution (H.J.Res. 61). An initial procedural vote is likely this evening.   A bill establishing a nascent regulatory framework for payment stablecoins (S. 1582) could receive a Senate vote this week, after Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) initiated a process Thursday to expedite a vote on the legislation.  OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Microsoft President Brad Smith are among the witnesses invited to a Thursday Senate Commerce Committee hearing on AI.

MAKING THEIR DEBUT:  Trump’s cabinet secretaries testify this week about their agencies’ fiscal 2026 budget requests:  Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem will testify before House appropriators Tuesday and Senate appropriators Thursday.   Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies for House appropriators at a Tuesday hearing.   Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins testifies for Senate appropriators Tuesday, before she joins House appropriators Wednesday.   FBI Director Kash Patel will join House appropriators Wednesday and Senate appropriators Thursday.   Energy Secretary Chris Wright will testify Wednesday before House appropriators.   FEMA‘s acting administrator Cam Hamilton will join House appropriators Wednesday.  Key leaders for the Army, Air Force, Space Force, and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency will also testify before House appropriators.

CONFIRMATIONS:  Federal Reserve vice chairman for supervision nominee Michelle Bowman is among the Trump nominees senators will vet or advance this week:  Agriculture deputy secretary nominee Stephen Vaden and general counsel Tyler Clarkson are set for votes this evening by the Senate Agriculture panel.   Bowman will receive a vote Tuesday at a Senate Banking Committee markup, alongside five other Commerce, Treasury, and Housing and Urban Development picks.  Defense picks Katherine E. Sutton and Anthony J. Tata will testify at a Tuesday Senate Armed Services confirmation hearing to become assistant secretary of defense for cyber policy and undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness, respectively.  Health and Human Services nominees James O’Neill and Gary Andres will testify before the Senate Finance panel Tuesday to be deputy secretary and assistant secretary, respectively.  Caleb Orr will join the Foreign Relations committee at a Thursday hearing to become assistant secretary of state for economic and business affairs.   HHS nominees O’Neill and Janette Nesheiwat will testify at a Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions hearing Thursday to become an HHS deputy secretary and the Public Health Service medical director and surgeon general, respectively.

NUMBERS:  The U.S. economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3%, marking its first decline since early 2022…US adds 177,000 jobs in April… U.S. consumer confidence fell for the fifth straight month, and expectations for the future fell to a 13-year low.

‘BOUT THOSE 100 DAYS:  President Donald Trump’s aggressive first 100 days have reshaped Congress, consolidating Republican loyalty and galvanizing Democratic opposition. His combative, unilateral approach has diminished legislative power and widened the partisan divide. With Republicans advancing his agenda and Democrats fighting back, prospects for bipartisan cooperation are slim. GOP leaders follow Trump’s lead, fearing his political backlash. Democrats, meanwhile, are energized, pivoting from early calls for unity to adopting bold tactics, including marathon speeches, grassroots town halls, and social media blitzes.  While the GOP pushes tax cuts and border security, Democrats warn of executive overreach and legislative irrelevance. Some Republicans admit fear of retaliation; Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) called speaking out “anxious work.” With little room to block Trump’s agenda, Democrats are turning to the courts. Both parties now look toward the 2026 midterms—Republicans banking on economic gains, Democrats hoping rising public frustration translates into power. Trump’s dominance remains the defining force shaping Capitol Hill.

SKINNY BUDGET:  President Donald Trump has proposed sweeping and unprecedented federal spending cuts, seeking to slash more than $163 billion from non-defense programs while maintaining flat military funding. The budget blueprint pressures Congress—particularly Republicans—to approve reductions of over 20% to agencies Trump has already been unilaterally freezing since Inauguration Day. The scale of the proposed cuts is far beyond what Congress is used to enacting, sparking alarm among GOP lawmakers. The plan deepens tensions between the White House and congressional Republicans as party leaders scramble to fund the government and avoid a shutdown ahead of the September 30 deadline.

WALTZ:  President Trump is reshuffling his national security team in the first major shake-up of his second term. On Thursday, he nominated National Security Adviser Mike Waltz to serve as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will assume the role of interim national security adviser while retaining his current post—becoming the first person since Henry Kissinger to hold both positions simultaneously.  Trump announced the move on Truth Social following reports that Waltz and a senior aide had been ousted from the National Security Council. Waltz was previously at the center of the Signal chat controversy after mistakenly adding journalist Jeffrey Goldberg to a group discussing a potential military strike.  Waltz, who left a safe House seat to join the administration, replaces Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), whose U.N. nomination was pulled to maintain the GOP’s narrow majority. Trump also nominated Rep. Matt Gaetz for attorney general, but he later resigned amid ethics allegations

RUBIO:  President Trump’s decision to name Secretary of State Marco Rubio as acting national security adviser signals the former rival’s rise as one of Trump’s most trusted advisers, Axios’ Marc Caputo reports.   Rubio’s ascent marks a transformation from Reagan-era conservative to core Trump ally — and it’s as much about chemistry as ideology. “Marco can bro out with the POTUS. They talk UFC. They talk sports,” said a White House insider, contrasting him with Vice President J.D. Vance.  Some MAGA loyalists still brand Rubio a “neocon” and have tried to undermine him, but Trump’s move silenced those critics. Now holding powers not seen since Henry Kissinger, Rubio wears multiple hats: secretary of state, acting national security adviser, USAID acting administrator, and interim National Archives head.  “He’s not just on message — he makes the message,” said a White House aide. Trump values his discipline and TV savvy, often pulling Rubio into key decisions, from tariffs to immigration.

RECONCILIATION:  House Republicans marked up more of their budget reconciliation package, with four committees approving portions of the plan on Wednesday along party lines.   Judiciary voted 23-17 to back its $81 billion portion that imposes steep fees on asylum-seekers and other immigrants to fund Trump’s aggressive detention and deportation campaign.  Oversight approved by a 22-21 vote its piece to pare back pension benefits for federal employees and charge them higher premiums for retirement benefits. Transportation and Infrastructure voted 36-30 for its reconciliation plan, which would force electric vehicle owners to pay a $250 per year fee.  Financial Services approved, 30-22, its proposal to neuter an audit watchdog established after the Enron scandal and rescind funds from Democrats’ 2022 health-climate-tax law,

RECONCILIATION II:  House Republican leaders have delayed three key committee markups on President Trump’s reconciliation package amid internal GOP divisions. After a high-level meeting with Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson, and key chairs, leadership postponed markups in the Energy and Commerce, Ways and Means, and Agriculture committees. Energy and Commerce and Agriculture must find over $1.1 trillion in cuts from Medicaid and food aid, sparking clashes between conservatives and moderates. The Ways and Means Committee, central to extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, awaits scoring from the Joint Committee on Taxation. GOP leaders now aim to hold all markups the week of May 12, alongside the Budget Committee’s effort to stitch the package together—an ambitious timeline. Meanwhile, Byrd Rule constraints have already forced policy revisions across committees. Proposals affecting the FTC, farm bill, and resource permitting face resistance from Senate Republicans and skepticism from Democrats, who argue GOP plans won’t deliver meaningful savings.

DAYLITE EMERGING?:  Hill Republicans are pushing back on the Trump administration in a flurry of rare rebukes, signaling the president’s grip on the GOP governing trifecta may be loosening. Speaker Mike Johnson broke with the White House over how to offset costs in the party’s megabill, rejecting both deep Medicaid cuts and the administration’s proposal to link U.S. drug prices to lower foreign rates. That split has stalled markups in the Energy and Commerce and Agriculture committees as GOP leaders scramble for alternatives that won’t touch Medicaid or food aid. House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole also voiced frustration, noting appropriators can’t begin writing funding bills without a full budget from the White House. And in the Senate, Republicans hesitated to back Trump’s nominee for D.C. U.S. attorney, Ed Martin, over his ties to Jan. 6 defendants. These tensions may prove fleeting—but they reveal a party still asserting its independence.

DEPORTATIONS:  U.S. District Judge Fernando Rodriguez, Jr., a Trump appointee, ruled Thursday that President Donald Trump’s use of the Alien Enemies Act to deport Venezuelan nationals to El Salvador was unlawful. The decision blocks further removals under the 1798 law, marking the most definitive judicial rebuke yet to Trump’s expedited deportation strategy. Rodriguez found that Trump misapplied the law—meant for nationals of hostile nations during armed conflict—by targeting alleged members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua without establishing that Venezuela is engaged in organized warfare against the U.S.  Trump claimed the gang operates under Venezuelan government direction, but Rodriguez noted no evidence supports claims of an invasion or attempt to seize U.S. territory. The ruling issues a permanent injunction, surpassing earlier temporary blocks issued by other courts. However, the decision applies only within Rodriguez’s South Texas district and can be appealed to the conservative Fifth Circuit. Deportation efforts continue to face legal pushback nationwide.

UKRAINE:  The U.S. and Ukraine have signed an economic partnership to jointly develop Ukraine’s mineral resources, the Trump administration announced Wednesday. The agreement includes establishing a U.S.-Ukraine investment fund to support Ukraine’s reconstruction amid its ongoing war with Russia. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the deal a clear signal of U.S. commitment to a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine.  Under the agreement, Ukraine retains control of its natural resources, while the U.S. will help develop critical minerals in exchange for royalties and future revenue sharing. Kyiv and Washington had negotiated for months, with final terms settled after last-minute revisions requested by Ukraine.  The deal follows a weekend meeting between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy in Vatican City, where Zelenskyy urged Trump to press Putin for peace. Trump later suggested Putin’s latest bombings signal bad faith. He called the deal a future deterrent, saying an American presence will help secure regions vital to the agreement.

GAZA:  The U.S., Israel, and a new international foundation are nearing an agreement to resume humanitarian aid to Gaza while bypassing Hamas control, according to Israeli and U.S. sources.  Since the collapse of the Gaza ceasefire, Israel has blocked aid, worsening the humanitarian crisis. Aid agencies warn food could run out within days.  The new plan—backed by the Trump administration—would route aid through an internationally governed foundation, with strict safeguards to prevent diversion to Hamas. Civilians would collect weekly aid packages at secure, newly built distribution compounds. A U.S. company would handle logistics and security, while the IDF secures surrounding areas but remains outside the compounds.  Trump said he urged Netanyahu to allow aid, calling the situation dire. The plan is expected to be operational before Israel expands its ground offensive and in time for Trump’s upcoming visit to the region. The Israeli cabinet is set to review the proposal this weekend.

TARRIFS:  It was another volatile day in the ongoing debate over President Trump’s tariffs. General Motors revealed a tariff exposure of $4–$5 billion, but CEO Mary Barra expressed support for the administration’s efforts to ease some levies on automakers and address global trade imbalances. “We’re aligned on strengthening U.S. manufacturing and ensuring a level playing field,” she told Fox Business.  Mercedes-Benz announced plans for a new plant in Alabama, joining several other automakers expanding U.S. operations. However, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce urged the administration to exempt certain products from tariffs, warning of recession risks. Microsoft said it would raise prices on Xbox consoles and accessories due to increased costs.  GOP lawmakers voiced growing unease. “The tariffs have injected uncertainty and instability into the economy,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). A Senate vote to repeal the tariffs failed 49-49, with three Republicans in support. The outcome could have changed if two absent senators had voted.

TARIFFS – E.U.:  The European Commission presented EU member states on Wednesday with a list of concessions it may offer the Trump administration, alongside a new list of retaliatory tariffs if negotiations fail, according to EU officials. The dual-track strategy—offering cooperation while preparing for escalation—aims to give Brussels leverage in upcoming talks and maintain unity among the 27 member states.  Potential offers include increased energy investments and easing some EU regulations. Reductions in auto tariffs and mutual industrial goods agreements remain on the table, as does cooperation on China’s trade practices. However, internal divisions persist, with France and Belgium urging a tougher response. French President Emmanuel Macron has pushed to target a broader range of sectors, including services, and invoked the EU’s anti-coercion “bazooka” tool.  The Commission’s top trade officials, Björn Seibert and Sabine Weyand, briefed ambassadors in a closed-door session. The EU’s response remains on hold until July 14, aligning with Trump’s temporary tariff pause.

FEC:  The Federal Election Commission has lost its quorum again after Republican Commissioner Allen Dickerson announced his departure. Without enough members, the agency cannot take official action, including ruling on investigations, citing campaign finance violations, or issuing advisory opinions. Dickerson, confirmed in 2020, is the second commissioner to step down this year, following Sean Cooksey’s January resignation.

HIGHER EDUCATION:  President Trump delivered the commencement address at the University of Alabama, underscoring his administration’s escalating crackdown on campus culture. The speech comes amid legal and political battles with elite universities, including a court fight with Harvard over $2 billion in frozen federal funds. Trump has also threatened Harvard’s tax-exempt status for refusing demands to overhaul leadership, hiring, and its diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs.  “Universities are on notice,” said White House adviser Stephen Miller. “This administration won’t allow our society to be strangled by communist, woke DEI ideology.”  The Trump administration has portrayed elite colleges as liberal strongholds, citing pro-Palestinian protests it labels antisemitic. Several foreign student protesters have been arrested and targeted for deportation.  Harvard, which recently rebranded its DEI office, has apologized for some antisemitic incidents but rejected broader demands, accusing Trump of seeking ideological control. Meanwhile, the White House emphasized cultural issues as part of its 100-day media push, including new HHS guidance discouraging youth gender surgeries.