Washington on One - 11/3/2025

THE LEDE:  Millions of low-income Americans are losing access to food aid after SNAP funding lapsed this weekend. A federal judge is ordering the Trump administration to restore funding this week… Fed Chair cuts rates ¼ Chair Powell said that a December rate cut was not a guarantee…Candidates in New Jersey, New York City and Virginia made final arguments on the airwaves last week, urging voters to get out ahead of Election Day tomorrow…Trump said he “could” send troops into Nigeria and conduct airstrikes on the African country over alleged attacks on Christians, directing the Pentagon to prepare for “possible action” against Nigeria if the attacks don’t stop…The FDA’s top drug regulator, George Tidmarsh, resigned from the agency Sunday over personal conduct concerns…The Trump administration won't send any senior officials to COP30, the upcoming UN climate summit in Belém, Brazil…The nuclear testing that Trump wants to resume will not include nuclear explosions, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said yesterday, clarifying plans to test “the other parts of a nuclear weapon” to ensure they’re working…Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has barred military officials from discussing drug boat strikes with members of Congress without prior approval, CNN reported…USDA has prepared roughly $12 billion in farm aid for farmers hurt by Trump’s trade war. The administration plans to roll out the money after the shutdown ends, though it’s not yet clear how officials will do so…A federal judge extended the order blocking the Trump administration from deploying National Guard troops to Portland, Oregon, through Friday, keeping the troops in limbo…Trump will host Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa next week, which will be the first-ever visit by a Syrian president to the White House, an administration official told The Associated Press…Mid-Term Elections are 1 year out…

THE WEEK AHEAD:  Both parties are watching the outcomes in Virginia and New Jersey’s gubernatorial elections on Tuesday night, as well as the New York City mayor’s race and California’s redistricting referendum…Supremes hear Tariff case on Wednesday…Reading the grass blades, we’re way past tea leaves, on a bipartisan Senate Deal…

MARK UPS / HEARINGS OF NOTE:  Markup spotlight:   Monday, Nov. 3 | 5:30 p.m. Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee business meeting to consider the United States Grain Standards Reauthorization Act of 2025 and three nominees, including the nomination of former Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-N.M.) to be an Assistant Secretary of Agriculture. S-216 Capitol.  Tuesday, Nov. 4 | 3 p.m. Senate Intelligence Committee closed business meeting. S-128 Capitol.  Wednesday, Nov. 5 | 10 a.m. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee business meeting to consider the nominations of Edward Frost to serve as Administrator of the General Services Administration; Charles Arrington to be a member of the Federal Labor Relations Authority, as well as three judicial nominations for the D.C. Superior Court. 342 Dirksen.  Thursday, Nov. 6 | 10:15 a.m. Senate Judiciary Committee executive business meeting to consider the Holocaust Expropriated Art Recovery Act of 2025, as well as five judicial and U.S. attorney nominees. 216 Hart.  Hearing highlights:   Tuesday, Nov. 4 | 9:30 a.m. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing to consider several Department of Defense nominees, including the nomination of Robert Kadlec to be Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear Deterrence, Chemical and Biological Defense Policy and Programs. G50 Dirksen.  Wednesday, Nov. 5 | 10 a.m. Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee hearing on “Registered Apprentice: Scaling the Workforce for the Future.” 430 Dirksen.  Wednesday, Nov. 5 | 2:15 p.m. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing to consider nominees for the Department of Transportation and the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority. 253 Russell.  Wednesday, Nov. 5 | 2:30 p.m. Senate Indian Affairs Committee hearing to examine the Lumbee Fairness Act. 628 Dirksen.  Wednesday, Nov. 5 | 3 p.m. Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee hearing on Glen Smith’s nomination to be Under Secretary of Agriculture for Rural Development. 328A Russell.  Wednesday, Nov. 5 | 3 p.m. Senate Intelligence Committee closed briefing. 219 Hart.  Wednesday, Nov. 5 | 3:30 p.m. Senate Aging Committee hearing on “Renewing Our Commitment: How the Older Americans Act Uplifts Families Living with Aging-Related Diseases.” 216 Hart.  Wednesday, Nov. 5 | 4 p.m. Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee hearing on “A Grateful Nation: Maximizing Veterans’ Success After Service.” 418 Russell.  Thursday, Nov. 6 | 9:30 a.m. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing to consider the several Department of Defense nominees, including the nomination of Maurice L. Todd to be Assistant Secretary of Defense for Readiness. G50 Dirksen.  Thursday, Nov. 6 | 10 a.m. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing to consider nominees for the National Transportation Safety Board and Surface Transportation Board. 253 Russell.  Thursday, Nov. 6 | 10 a.m. Senate HELP Committee hearing on “Reforming Financial Transparency in Higher Education.” 430 Dirksen.  Thursday, Nov. 6 | 2 p.m. Senate Homeland Security Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations hearing on “Assessing the Damage Done by Obamacare.” 342 Dirksen.

NUMBERS:  The U.S. has a third of the world's billionaires — but they hold 43% of global billionaire wealth, according to data firm Altrata's latest report…Candy prices are up 10.4%, driven by soaring cocoa costs that "continue to rise by double digits," according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

THE FED:  The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, its second straight reduction amid a softer labor market and a data blackout from the shutdown. Chair Jerome Powell warned another cut in December is “far from” assured, noting “strongly differing views.” Two officials dissented: Gov. Stephen Miran favored a larger cut; Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid preferred no change. Markets reversed: stocks dipped and 2-year Treasury yields rose ~9 bps as traders trimmed odds of a year-end cut. The FOMC will end quantitative tightening on Dec. 1, citing funding-market strains, and will reinvest principal into Treasury bills. With official reports delayed, the Fed is leaning on private indicators; the White House temporarily recalled staff to release September CPI, which showed cooling inflation. The administration is also narrowing candidates to replace Powell as chair by year-end; Powell hasn’t said whether he’d remain on the Board.

EXERCISING THE FRANCHISE:  Voters head to the polls Tuesday in marquee off-year contests that could signal President Donald Trump’s political standing ahead of the 2026 midterms. California voters will weigh a high-profile redistricting initiative, widely expected to pass, as Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) seeks to counter Texas’ GOP-drawn map. That Texas map also complicates Democrats’ March primary, following this week’s special election to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D).  In Virginia, where Trump’s federal workforce cuts loom large, recent surveys show former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) by double digits. In New Jersey, former Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) holds a narrower, single-digit edge over Jack Ciattarelli (R).  Ballot initiatives in five states include stricter gun laws (Maine), school-lunch tax hikes (Colorado), and mandatory bail denials (Texas), California’s measure, the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorials, Texas’ special election, and statewide ballot questions.

SHUTDOWN VIBES:  Congress is poised this week to preside over the longest shutdown in U.S. history, hitting 35 days Tuesday night. Rank-and-file senators have restarted bipartisan talks, but a deal before the record is unlikely: the Senate isn’t back until Monday night, and Speaker Mike Johnson says the House will get 48 hours’ notice before any vote. Looming impacts are sharpening pressure — a SNAP lapse for ~42 million people, additional Head Start closures, air-traffic staffing strains, and early signs of higher ACA premiums as subsidies expire. Republicans blame Democrats; Democrats say they’re ready to negotiate “anytime, anyplace” but want a health-care deal and a path to a funding framework. Some Democrats have floated limited relief (e.g., a vote to extend ACA subsidies) after reopening, while others urge “recalibrating” if the standoff doesn’t yield policy gains. Trump briefly reengaged by urging Senate Republicans to scrap the filibuster, a move unlikely to pass and at odds with GOP leadership’s strategy. This shutdown is biting harder than past ones because no full-year bills were enacted beforehand. A missed SNAP payment could be the breaking point, but for now there’s still no clear off-ramp.  Good times….

SNAP:  A pair of federal judges on Friday ordered the Trump administration to keep SNAP (food stamp) benefits flowing during the shutdown, delivering a sharp legal setback to the White House but leaving major operational questions unresolved.  Without intervention, SNAP was set to run out of money on Saturday, threatening benefits for roughly 42 million people — about one in eight Americans — and creating a $9 billion gap for November. The administration had refused to use SNAP’s $5+ billion emergency reserve, arguing it could only be tapped for natural disasters and that, without new congressional funding, “there is no program” to fund.  Judge John McConnell of the U.S. District Court in Rhode Island rejected that argument and ordered the administration to “distribute the contingency money timely, or as soon as possible, for the Nov. 1 payments to be made.” He noted SNAP “has never, until now, been terminated,” and that the government used contingency funds during the 2019 shutdown.  Within an hour, Judge Indira Talwani of the U.S. District Court in Massachusetts separately ruled the halt “unlawful,” and ordered the administration to explain by Monday how it will fund November aid. “Congress has put money in an emergency fund,” she said. “It’s hard for me to understand how this isn’t an emergency.”  These rulings force USDA to spend at least part of the reserve and avert an immediate cutoff, but they do not guarantee full November benefits. USDA has warned it could take weeks to deliver partial payments, and the Justice Department may appeal — potentially delaying disbursement.  States had already begun contingency planning, with some preparing to front limited aid themselves. Congressional Democrats argue the administration has both the legal authority and the money to sustain SNAP during the shutdown; the White House continues to insist Congress must act.

CHINA:  President Donald Trump said Thursday he will cut U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports to 47%, down from about 57%, after a two-hour meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea. Trump said the move was part of a broader understanding that includes resumed Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and a one-year pause on new Chinese restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals. He called the talks “a 12 on a scale of 1 to 10.”  Beijing’s delay on rare earth export controls gives the U.S. breathing room on materials critical to defense, energy, and electronics supply chains. China also agreed to increase cooperation on blocking fentanyl precursor chemicals and to boost agricultural imports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later said China committed to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans “this season,” then at least 25 million metric tons annually for three years. In return, Trump said he will lower fentanyl-related tariffs on China from 20% to 10% and suspend for one year a U.S. investigation into China’s shipbuilding sector and a proposed rule expanding export controls to Chinese subsidiaries. Trump said the two sides will review and renew the broader package annually.  The new 47% rate is far below the 145% tariff ceiling Trump imposed earlier this year but remains far higher than pre-Trump levels. U.S. importers ultimately pay these tariffs, which can flow through to consumers.  The two leaders did not resolve core disputes over advanced semiconductors. The administration said further talks will run directly between Beijing and Nvidia.  Trump said the meeting did not include discussion of Taiwan, Russian oil, or Nvidia’s newest Blackwell chips. He also said China agreed to begin talks on buying U.S. oil and gas, including from Alaska.  Trump and Xi also discussed Ukraine. Trump said both countries would “work together” to see if they can help force negotiations.  The meeting capped Trump’s Asia trip and was the first in-person Trump–Xi session since Trump returned to office. Despite the pause in escalation, tensions over technology, security, human rights, and economic leverage remain unresolved.

VENEZUELA:  The top Republican and Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee are accusing the Pentagon of stonewalling Congress on the Trump administration’s lethal maritime strike campaign in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific.  In a joint statement, Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) and Ranking Member Jack Reed (D-R.I.) said the Defense Department has not provided documents they requested in Sept. 23 and Oct. 6 letters to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Those letters demanded the legal basis for the strikes, any new or revised “execute orders,” and Justice Department opinions justifying the use of force. “To date, these documents have not been submitted,” they said. The Pentagon did not immediately respond. Hegseth said earlier Friday that the administration has already briefed Congress “time and time again.”  Their frustration reflects growing bipartisan concern about President Donald Trump’s escalating campaign, which has killed at least 60 people on alleged drug-smuggling boats. Lawmakers want clarity on the administration’s claim of legal authority, on which groups are being targeted, and on the risk of escalation. The United Nations said Friday the U.S. strikes violate international law.  Trump has denied deciding to hit targets on land in Venezuela, but he has also said “the land is going to be next” and insisted he does not need advance authorization from Congress. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) warned that Congress and the public deserve an explanation before U.S. forces are put at risk. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said he wants to block further unilateral strikes: “We can’t have a policy where we just blow up ships where we don’t even know the people’s names.”  Asked in Kuala Lumpur why a surviving suspect was repatriated rather than brought to the U.S. for trial, Hegseth dismissed questions about the strength of the underlying evidence.

TARIFFS:  On Tuesday, the Senate voted 52–48 to terminate the national emergency that President Trump used to impose 50% tariffs on most Brazilian goods. Five Republicans joined Democrats, marking the first of three planned rebukes to the tariff regime.   On Wednesday, senators approved a separate resolution 50–46 to end the emergency underpinning tariffs on Canadian imports—a repeat of a vote the chamber had backed earlier this year.   On Thursday, the Senate passed a broader resolution 51–47 to terminate the global emergency that authorizes sweeping tariffs well beyond country-specific measures. Supporters framed it as a needed course-correction for farmers, manufacturers and small businesses facing higher input costs.   Collectively, the votes register a bipartisan rebuke of the administration’s emergency-based tariff strategy. However, the resolutions must still clear the House and avoid (or overcome) a presidential veto to take effect; until then, the tariffs remain in place.  Yea, it’s just for show for now….

TARIFFS:  (WATCH THIS SPACE):  The Supreme Court will hear Wednesday a case that could decide the fate of President Trump’s signature economic tool: the global tariffs imposed largely under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The question is whether the 50-year-old emergency statute—never before used to levy import taxes—authorizes such duties. An appeals court struck down key tariffs in August, setting up a high-stakes review. Analysts say the ruling reaches beyond trade: If the Court narrows IEEPA, it could sharply limit a president’s ability to bypass Congress via emergency powers, trigger complex refund claims and revenue losses, and unsettle trade deals built around the tariff regime. A win would preserve broad executive latitude; a loss would curtail it and force the administration to rework its trade architecture quickly. Trump has called it “the most important case ever.”

GOTTA KNOW WHEN TO HOLD ‘EM:  A bipartisan Senate push is underway to reverse a gambling tax change enacted in July. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) says Finance Committee members and others are working on legislation she introduced with Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), and Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) to restore the full deduction for gambling losses. Under the Trump-backed megabill, gamblers may deduct only 90% of losses—creating tax liability even when they merely break even. Nevada lawmakers warn the rule could depress gaming revenue. Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) has signaled he won’t oppose restoring the full deduction if colleagues press the issue, and House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) has pledged to reverse the limitation.

ELECTION NIGHT CHEATSHEET:  Executive Summary: Two governor’s races (VA, NJ), California’s congressional Proposition 50 (Dem map redraw), large-city mayoralties, and targeted judicial/utility/regulatory contests that affect 2026 posture. 

Governor & Statewide Races 

Virginia (polls close 7:00 p.m. ET):  Governor: Abigail Spanberger (D) leads Winsome Earle-Sears (R) by ~9 (DDHQ avg). First woman governor either way.  Lt. Governor: Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D) +~4 over John Reid (R). Historic firsts possible (first Muslim woman statewide; first openly gay GOP statewide).  Attorney General: Jason Miyares (R, incumbent) +~3 over Jay Jones (D).  House of Delegates: Ds 51–49; Ds vastly outraised Rs; most competitive seats are R-held → D majority expansion risk for GOP. Senate not on ballot (Ds narrowly control). Dem trifecta possible.

New Jersey (8:00 p.m. ET):  Governor: Mikie Sherrill (D) +~5 (tight in some polls) vs Jack Ciattarelli (R).  General Assembly: Ds favored to retain majority; modest GOP pickup possible.

High-Impact Ballot Measures

California Prop 50 (11:00 p.m. ET): Suspends independent map; installs more D-friendly map. Polling shows passage likely (DDHQ avg 57–38).  Maine: Q1 (Voter ID + other voting limits) and Q2 (red-flag law) are competitive/uncertain.  Texas: 17 constitutional props; Prop 3 expands pretrial detention; Prop 12 boosts governor’s appointments to judicial conduct panel.

Key Local & Judicial Contests

NYC Mayor (9:00 p.m. ET): Three-way: Zohran Mamdani (D-Soc) leads; Andrew Cuomo (Ind) and Curtis Sliwa (R) trail. Turnout volatility; mandate depends on majority share.  Other big-city mayors: Miami (crowded, likely 12/9 runoff), Minneapolis (RCV; Frey vs Sen. Omar Fateh), Detroit (Mary Sheffield favored), Albuquerque (Keller favored; possible runoff), Seattle (Katie Wilson favored over Mayor Bruce Harrell).  Pennsylvania judiciary (8:00 p.m. ET): Three Dem Supreme Court retention votes unusually contested; failure to retain any could deadlock court 2–2 pending appointments.

Energy/Regulatory Races                                                                                               

Georgia PSC (7:00 p.m. ET): Two specials (Districts 2 & 3). No reliable public polling. GOP currently 5–0; Dems eye turnout assist (Atlanta mayor) and utility-bill anger.

GO DODGERS:  After 11 innings in a game 7 — including a stunning ninth-inning comeback to stay in it — the Los Angeles Dodgers became the first back-to-back World Series champions in 25 years.