Washington On One - 12/1/2025

THE LEDE:  Another 500 National Guard troops are headed to Washington in the wake of the shooting of two of its members near the White House last week… Trump said he has decided on his pick for the next Federal Reserve chair after making clear he expects his nominee to deliver interest-rate cuts… While turkeys were brining last week, EPA quietly pushed out the door its final rule delaying Biden-era methane limits for oil and gas operations…Trump’s deadly boat strikes under Hill microscope… Lawmakers plan to release the final text of a compromise version of the National Defense Authorization Act this week and tee up a House floor vote as soon as next week… Trump’s series of targeted immigration enforcement operations turns to its next big city today as “Swamp Sweep” kicks off in and around New Orleans…Trump has withdrawn 57 nominees so far in his second term — a record number for a president’s first year in office, even as the Senate has confirmed more than 300 civilian nominees since January… It’s the final day of campaigning before the special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, and Republicans are sprinting to ensure that what should be an easy victory does not turn into another disaster… Georgia election interference case against Trump is dismissed…After months of closure while the East Wing was being demolished, White House tours will begin again tomorrow — just in time to see the new holiday decorations, which volunteers erected over the Thanksgiving long weekend…Cory Booker Weds Alexis Lewis in a Private Ceremony, Congrats to the Newly Weds!...

THE MONTH AHEAD:   Congress has 13 House and 12 Senate session days left in 2025 to navigate several flashpoints. First, ACA premium subsidies expire Dec. 31. Despite earlier trial balloons, the White House is now unlikely to back any extension, leaving Congress to act. Sen. John Thune has promised a vote next week, but dueling party plans are unlikely to reach 60 votes. House GOP leaders are weighing an HSA-focused package and plan pooling; Hyde concerns remain. Second, government funding: Thune aims to advance the next FY-2026 minibus—Defense, Labor-HHS, Transportation-HUD, and Commerce-Justice-Science (possibly Interior)—using October’s Defense vehicle and unanimous-consent time agreements; the Senate floor is crowded with nominations. House leaders expect to wait on Senate action. Third, NDAA: text is expected this week Separate NDAA language preempting state AI regulation is backed by House leaders and the White House; Democratic support unclear. House floor: the SCORE Act (college athletics/NIL) this week; permitting bills next week. Politics: NRCC NYC fundraiser this weekend; House GOP staff-director retreat in Boston next week focused on a 2026 agenda.

ACA:   Congress returns to a sprint: roughly 30 days to address expiring ACA premium tax credits and avert premium spikes for millions. Both parties agree the path depends on President Trump, whose signals have shifted—from flirting with a two-year extension with tighter eligibility, to backing away after GOP blowback, to saying an extension may be necessary.  House centrist Brian Fitzpatrick is drafting a bipartisan plan that mirrors last week’s leaked White House contours (extension plus income limits), with loose support from the Republican Main Street Caucus. Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo is seeking a bipartisan path (not reconciliation). Some House centrists are readying a discharge petition as a fail-safe but are giving the Senate time.  Timeline: while credits expire Dec. 31, many eye Jan. 30 (the next funding deadline) as the real cutoff. The Senate plans a health-care vote as soon as Dec. 9 per the shutdown deal, though details are unsettled.  Democrats are split: a Shaheen/Suozzi group is exploring a narrow bipartisan extension with Murkowski/Fitzpatrick, while others, led by Bernie Sanders, want a broader plan. Skepticism persists that any GOP deal will advance without Trump’s explicit backing. As Sen. Chris Murphy put it: negotiations “don’t matter until Donald Trump weighs in.”

APPROPRIATIONS:  House GOP appropriators aren’t ready to move the two biggest bills—Defense and Labor-HHS-Education—and instead are pushing for a cross-chamber deal on a smaller set of measures, with an eye toward enactment by month’s end. Majority Whip Tom Emmer said “three to six” bills are “very close,” adding he hopes to clear at least one package in December: “Reach for the moon. You may get a few stars.”  Appropriations Chair Tom Cole said the next step should be “a smaller group of bills” to rebuild confidence and avoid a year-end, take-it-or-leave-it omnibus. Senate Republicans are similarly exploring a limited bundle that could be signed into law while separately pursuing a minibus that pairs Defense with Labor-HHS-Education and other titles, according to aides.  The timeline is tight: striking a bicameral agreement within three weeks is a heavy lift. Still, any finalized appropriations bills could become vehicles for a year-end deal on Affordable Care Act premium subsidies, if one materializes.

DEBANKING:  Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee released a staff report for Chair French Hill (R-Ark.) alleging that Biden-era prudential regulators “abused” supervisory and enforcement powers to push digital-asset firms out of the U.S. banking system. Framed as part of a broader GOP fight against “debanking” politically controversial businesses, the report focuses on regulators’ actions, even as banks themselves face separate scrutiny from the Trump administration. Recommended actions include reforms to the CAMELS supervisory rating framework and Senate passage of a pending crypto market-structure bill to clarify custody, registration, and oversight. The report argues these steps would curb informal pressure campaigns and provide clear rules for bank–crypto relationships. Critics counter that some crypto companies present consumer-protection, fraud, and financial-stability risks that merit heightened oversight, and warn that weakening supervisory discretion could invite new vulnerabilities.

UKRAINIAN:  US and Ukrainian negotiators said they had productive discussions about a framework for a peace deal with Russia, but there was no final breakthrough in the Florida meeting that was likely the last chance for Kyiv to sway special envoy Steve Witkoff before he leads a US delegation for talks in Moscow this week.

VENEZUELA:  Another tense weekend for Venezuela watchers ended in brinkmanship that fizzled. On Saturday, President Donald Trump urged airlines to treat Venezuelan airspace as closed—seemingly a prelude to tougher action against Nicolás Maduro. Caracas called it an “explicit threat of force” and said the move effectively suspended US deportation flights, jeopardizing one of the few remaining channels of cooperation.  Despite saber-rattling, nothing material changed. Trump later downplayed his airspace remarks and Republican concerns over a fatal US strike on a suspected drug-running boat in the Caribbean. He confirmed speaking with Maduro but offered no details. Trump continues to hint at possible operations on Venezuelan soil without specifying scope or timing. Economic ties remain largely intact: Chevron continues producing oil in Venezuela without major disruption. Meanwhile, opposition leader María Corina Machado is expected to leave hiding and travel to Norway to receive the Nobel Peace Prize—an image Maduro would rather avoid on the world stage.

BOAT STRIKES:  House and Senate armed services panels will launch rare oversight of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s management of U.S. strikes on suspected drug-smuggling boats, as President Trump heightens tensions with Venezuela. The probes follow a Washington Post report alleging Hegseth ordered forces to “kill them all” during a Sept. 2 operation and that a follow-on strike targeted two apparent survivors—potential violations of the laws of armed conflict if true. Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) and Ranking Member Jack Reed (D-R.I.) vowed “vigorous oversight”; House counterparts Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) and Adam Smith (D-Wash.) announced a bipartisan fact-finding effort. Hegseth called the report “fabricated” and defended the strikes’ legality; Trump said Hegseth told him he did not order the two men killed and added a second strike was unnecessary. Lawmakers also want input from Adm. Alvin Holsey, the retiring SOUTHCOM commander, amid reported friction with Hegseth. U.S. forces have conducted 20+ strikes in the Caribbean and Pacific, with at least 80 fatalities. Separately, Trump briefly declared Venezuelan airspace “closed,” then downplayed it, prompting Sen. Chuck Schumer to note Congress has not authorized force. The Senate previously blocked War Powers resolutions; House Democrats have proposed barring future boat strikes.

AI REGS:  The White House and congressional Republicans are racing to add language to the year-end defense bill that would, at least in part, preempt state regulation of artificial intelligence. The push—urged by major tech firms—aims to avoid a “patchwork” of state laws and could lead the industry to back baseline federal standards in exchange for preemption.  Separately, the White House has a draft executive order directing DOJ and other agencies to challenge state AI rules. That draft drew resistance from House Republicans and tech lobbyists, who warned it would harden opposition among Democrats and other skeptics of preemption. Although a targeted Nov. 21 release date passed, the order could resurface during, or after, NDAA negotiations. 

H1-B VISAS:  President Donald Trump gently rebuked “conservative friends” who oppose his support for H-1B visas, saying that “our people need to be taught,” implying short-term skill gaps require foreign talent. Notably, that cohort appears to include his own vice president, JD Vance.  Trump now defends H-1B as vital to advanced manufacturing and defense tech, arguing “you have to bring in talent.” Vance counters that Americans can fill those roles, calling the notion that the U.S. must “import a foreign class of servants and professors” wrong. He’s criticized firms that seek H-1Bs after layoffs and says legal programs like H-1B can undercut wages; he’s also argued AI and better tools should empower U.S. workers rather than expand foreign hiring.  The divergence highlights a broader MAGA split over legal immigration: reform versus rollback. The administration has tightened the program—proposing a $100,000 application fee and revisiting selection rules—to curb abuse and wage suppression, but movement conservatives want deeper cuts while tech and manufacturing allies urge preservation.  A White House statement downplayed differences, emphasizing alignment on border security, yet the Trump–Vance contrast underscores generational and philosophical fault lines over the role of legal immigration in U.S. competitiveness.

BUT WAIT, THERE IS MORE ON H1-B VISAS:  The Heritage Foundation is urging sweeping H-1B changes, arguing current rules depress wages and displace U.S. workers. In a new paper, senior fellow Simon Hankinson recommends Congress: (1) end nonprofit and research cap-exemptions; (2) replace the lottery with a wage-ranked selection; and (3) clarify that H-4 spouses lack work authorization. He also urges tighter enforcement across agencies. DHS should cap how many H-1B petitions a single firm can file annually and permanently bar petitioners that knowingly violate immigration law. DOL should publish monthly, searchable statistics on petitions, layoffs, complaints, and investigations. DOJ should probe credible fraud/abuse claims and publicize prosecutions. Heritage further calls for curbing abuse in feeder categories (student/visitor visas) and “scaling back” H-1B to its original scope, updated for today’s wages, labor market, and AI disruptions.  The push lands amid renewed debate after President Trump said the U.S. needs skilled foreign workers—citing semiconductor manufacturing—and criticized the CHIPS Act while predicting rapid onshoring of chip production. Hill Republicans are exploring alternatives such as wage-based selection and expanded HSAs in broader health/industry packages; opponents counter that restrictions could hinder growth in STEM and chipmaking without parallel domestic training investments. 

DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION:  The Trump administration has begun executing its pledge to dismantle the Education Department by reallocating core functions across the government. Under interagency agreements, the offices of Elementary and Secondary Education and Postsecondary Education would move to Labor; the Office of Indian Education to Interior; Fulbright-Hays and all federal international/foreign-language programs to State; and the campus child-care access program and foreign medical-school accreditation to HHS. Officials call this a “proof of concept” and cite the Economy Act to justify the transfers, while acknowledging that fully shuttering the department still requires an act of Congress. Some Republicans remain wary; Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) has vowed to block the effort.  — Transfer issues: A prior shift of career, technical, and adult-education funds to Labor exposed pitfalls—technical glitches, poor communication, new grant-payment systems, and the record shutdown delayed disbursement from the $1.4 billion CTE program. The administration has also floated moving federal programs for students with disabilities, sparking alarm among former officials and advocates who doubt the government could meet legal obligations if special-education oversight is moved. For now, special education and the Civil Rights Office were excluded from last month’s transfers, but critics fear that reprieve is temporary.