Washington on One - 10/27/2025

THE LEDE:   Shutdown grinds on…Senate will be in session, the House remains on 48 hour notice…ObamaCare sticker shock begins as open enrollment meets shutdown deadlock…Trump orders US carrier strike group to Caribbean, sanctions Colombian President Petro…Trump raises tariffs on Canada by 10% over Reagan ad… Letitia James pleads not guilty to criminal charges related to alleged mortgage fraud…Office of the Special Counsel nom, Paul Ingrassia withdraws from confirmation hearing after racist texts… Appeals court backs Trump’s National Guard deployment in Portland…Gerrymandering gone wild! - one-third of all the states with more than one congressional seat are considering redoing their maps or have already done so…Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore) goes 22 hours and 37 minutes on the Senate floor lambasting the Trump Administration…Federal surge called off across the Bay Area…East Wing demolition triggers outcry…UVA secures more favorable terms in deal with Trump compared to private school counterparts… An heir to the Mellon fortune is said to be behind an anonymous $130 million gift (to cover payroll) to the U.S. military… NCAA allows athletes to bet on pro sports starting Nov. 1 (what could go wrong?)

THE WEEK AHEAD: This week brings a sharp escalation in shutdown fallout, with little hope of an immediate breakthrough while President Trump is in Asia. On Nov. 1, SNAP benefits are set to halt for more than 40 million people; troops could miss their next paychecks; and millions shopping for ACA coverage will face sharp premium hikes. The air-traffic system is also under strain, with weekend delays tied to understaffing.  Senators are weighing narrow relief bills. Josh Hawley may seek unanimous consent to fund SNAP for the duration of the shutdown. Although SNAP has never lapsed in modern history, the administration said in a Friday memo it cannot use contingency funds or other nutrition accounts to cover roughly $9 billion in monthly benefits. Other “rifle-shot” proposals include Ted Cruz’s bill to pay air traffic controllers and Dan Sullivan’s to pay troops.  The most plausible (but still unlikely) near-term path is a compromise to pay federal civilians and active-duty military. Ron Johnson’s bill was rejected by Democrats, but Johnson and Chris Van Hollen are exploring common ground, according to people familiar. “Something is going to have to come from the rank and file,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said, dismissing calls for Trump to broker a deal.  Democrats, however, are holding to their demand that any funding agreement extend enhanced ACA subsidies beyond year-end. As Sen. Thom Tillis put it: both sides believe they’re winning—pressure may rise only after the next missed paychecks.

SHUTDOWN PRESURE POINTS:  A pileup of deadlines — in addition to ACA open enrollment — is only going to make the shutdown uglier by the end of the week that are set to bear down if Congress doesn’t reach a government funding deal in the coming days:

•             Tuesday and Thursday: Many civilian employees across government agencies will miss their first full paychecks. (Some already went unpaid late last week.)

•             Friday: Members of the military will miss their first paycheck, assuming Trump doesn’t find funds elsewhere again. House staffers are also due to miss pay.

•             Saturday: Funding begins drying up for SNAP food aid, Head Start programs and WIC nutrition assistance.

•             This weekend: Essential Air Service, which subsidizes airline service to small, mostly rural communities, is expected to run out of money.

SNAP:  Millions of SNAP recipients could lose benefits as soon as Nov. 1 after the Trump administration said it lacks authority to fund the program during the shutdown. An unsigned USDA memo, reviewed by Bloomberg Government, says roughly $5 billion in SNAP contingency funds cannot be used absent FY2026 appropriations: they are “only available to supplement regular monthly benefits when amounts have been appropriated.” States have warned of a November lapse; anti-hunger groups estimate about $8 billion is needed.  The memo—first reported by Axios—adds the contingency fund is intended for disasters, not routine benefits, and cautions that states fronting November payments should not expect reimbursement. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) declared a state of emergency to keep aid flowing from state funds.  Democrats dispute USDA’s stance. Hundreds urged Secretary Brooke Rollins to use reserves, noting a since-deleted USDA plan said multi-year funds could cover benefits during a mid-year lapse. Reps. Angie Craig and Rosa DeLauro said “Congress already provided billions” and accused the administration of stripping aid from 42 million people. Sen. Josh Hawley’s (R-Mo.) stand-alone extension lacks Democratic support; Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) says the House will consider it if the Senate acts.  GAO previously found USDA’s 2019 early issuance method illegal—but concluded SNAP contingency funds could have been used lawfully. CBPP’s Sharon Parrott called the administration’s claim “unequivocally false.”

MEANWHILE ON THE SENATE FLOOR THIS WEEK:   Sen. Chuck Schumer and Democrats will force votes this week on three resolutions criticizing President Trump’s global tariffs and country-specific tariffs on Canada and Brazil. Similar Canada-focused language passed in April with several GOP votes; backers hope improved attendance helps advance a global-tariff rebuke that previously fell one vote short. The Brazil measure is receiving its first vote.  Democrats plan a vote on a War Powers resolution from Sens. Tim Kaine and Adam Schiff to bar strikes on Venezuela without congressional authorization. The earlier maritime-focused effort failed with only Sens. Rand Paul and Lisa Murkowski crossing party lines. Sen. Lindsey Graham said Trump will brief Congress after returning from Asia on potential expanded operations against Venezuela and Colombia.  Nothing yet on Russian Sanctions.

COMMITTEE MEETINGS OF NOTE:  Tuesday: The Senate Armed Services Committee will hold a hearing to consider a number of Defense Department nominees.  The Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing on “politically violent attacks.”  Wednesday: The Senate Commerce Committee will hold a hearing on “Big Tech and silencing Americans” with officials from Google and Meta. The Senate Finance Committee will consider a number of nominees, including Arjun Mody to be deputy commissioner of Social Security.  Thursday: The Senate Armed Services Committee will hold a hearing on the nomination of Vice Admiral Richard A. Correll to be the commander of U.S. Strategic Command.

CHINA TRADE:  U.S. and Chinese negotiators signaled movement on trade, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent citing a “substantial framework” to avert further tariff escalation. But officials say any deal will hinge on this week’s meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping.  Context before the summit:  Trump and Xi met five times in Trump’s first term, including Xi’s Mar-a-Lago visit and Trump’s trip to Beijing.  Their last in-person encounter (G20, June 2019) sought to cool a tariff spiral; despite upbeat rhetoric, both sides kept trading threats while talks sputtered.  Trump has alternated between praising Xi as a “friend” and calling him “extremely hard to make a deal with,” underscoring a transactional, unpredictable dynamic.  Beijing wants greater predictability from Washington after years of abrupt policy shifts.  Earlier this month, Trump briefly threatened to cancel the meeting amid renewed tensions over rare earths, tech exports, and tariffs. He later struck an optimistic tone, saying he would arrive in “dealmaking mode.”  Bottom line: Technical talks have laid groundwork, but leader-level decisions at the Trump–Xi meeting will determine whether the parties lock in a tariff off-ramp or slide back into escalation.

LATIN AMERICA: President Trump’s boat strikes in Latin American waters mark a sharp U.S. policy shift toward coercion that is straining long-standing regional partnerships. The administration says the targets ferried narcotics off Venezuela and in the East Pacific; at least 43 people have been killed. Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro called the actions “murder.” Trump responded by cutting security aid to Bogotá and personally sanctioning Petro, accusing him of tolerating cocaine production.  The buildup includes covert CIA operations in Venezuela and the deployment of an aircraft carrier strike group, fueling speculation of broader action against Nicolás Maduro. Critics—including Sen. Rand Paul—question the legal basis, evidence, and proportionality, noting some targeted boats may not have been capable of reaching the U.S. or carrying large loads.  Analysts warn the approach risks alienating key allies and unraveling decades of engagement designed to counter China. It is a stark break from President Biden’s “root causes” strategy focused on investment, governance, and anti-corruption. Rebecca Bill Chavez of the Inter-American Dialogue says the policy is “heavy on sticks and light on carrots,” undermining U.S. claims to be the region’s partner of choice. Adam Isacson of WOLA doubts Washington will invade but sees a dangerous cycle of escalation that could backfire, especially as public appetite for U.S. casualties is low. Cuba has condemned the operations as unlawful and destabilizing.  Supporters argue decisive action signals the cartels that “the rules have changed.” Skeptics counter that the campaign looks more like regime-change pressure than counternarcotics—and may erode U.S. credibility while delivering few strategic gains

COLOMBIA:  The United States on Friday imposed sanctions on Colombian President Gustavo Petro, escalating tensions between Washington and Bogotá over counternarcotics and broader policy disputes. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Petro “has allowed drug cartels to flourish and refused to stop this activity.” The measures target Petro and close associates, including his wife, son, and several senior Colombian officials.  The action follows months of friction. Petro has condemned the U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean and near Venezuela aimed at drug interdiction, criticized U.S. support for Israel’s war in Gaza, and urged legal action against recent U.S. strikes on alleged narcotics vessels. In September, Washington revoked Petro’s U.S. visa after remarks at a pro-Palestinian protest during the U.N. General Assembly. The administration also recently restored Colombia to a list of major narcotics-transit or -producing countries.  A former member of a leftist guerrilla group, Petro champions “total peace” talks with armed organizations and has questioned coca-eradication strategies, arguing demand in wealthy countries drives the trade. His stance has strained cooperation with the United States. U.S. officials allege permissiveness toward cartels, while critics of the sanctions note there is no public evidence Petro is personally involved in, or directly supports, criminal networks.

MIDDLE EAST:  Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. is receiving details on a potential U.N. resolution or agreement authorizing a multinational force in Gaza, with officials set to discuss specifics today in Qatar, per Reuters. Meanwhile, limited drone strikes continue in Gaza; Israel says targeted individuals were preparing attacks on its forces. The WSJ’s Vera Bergengruen reports on the facility outside Israel now coordinating aid and security talks tied to Trump’s peace plan.  Warning signs: Trump urged Hamas to accelerate the return of hostages’ bodies and said he will judge progress over the next 48 hours. Hamas has widened its search area for the 13 remaining hostages, the AP reports.

PUTIN:  Trump downplayed the prospect of a meeting with Vladimir Putin on Ukraine, telling reporters en route to Malaysia he’s “not going to be wasting my time,” Reuters reported. The remark comes as the administration readies additional sanctions to tighten pressure on Russia if negotiations to end the war remain stalled, according to Reuters’ Gram Slattery and colleagues. Ahead of Trump’s summer summit with Putin in Alaska, a State Department assessment questioned Putin’s willingness to negotiate—marking a notable contrast with a more optimistic CIA report. The split underscores continuing uncertainty over Moscow’s appetite for a deal.

PUBLIC SAFETY:  A divided 9th Circuit panel upheld President Donald Trump’s authority to federalize National Guard troops for deployment to Portland, Ore., ruling 2–1 that, even if his social-media posts “may exaggerate” violence, he had a “colorable” basis to conclude federal law enforcement was impeded. The decision, by Judges Ryan Nelson and Bridget Bade (both Trump appointees), lifts a prior injunction but has limited immediate effect: the district judge, Karin Immergut, separately issued a second order temporarily barring use of federalized Guard troops in Oregon after Trump moved California Guard units; that order remains in place unless modified or appealed.  The majority said prolonged unrest at a Portland immigration facility and similar incidents elsewhere justified deference to the President’s determination under statutes allowing Guard federalization when execution of federal law is obstructed (along with rebellion or invasion). The panel faulted the district court for relying heavily on Trump’s “war-ravaged” rhetoric and for using a “faulty definition” of rebellion; it did not endorse describing Portland as a “war zone” or decide whether rebellion existed.  Judge Susan Graber dissented, calling the ruling “absurd,” arguing protests had largely subsided to small, nonviolent gatherings by September, and warning courts must rule on facts, not “supposition or propaganda.”  A parallel dispute over Guard deployments around Chicago is already before the Supreme Court, which may resolve the issue.

REDISTRICTING:  A mid-decade redistricting fight ignited by President Trump’s push for more GOP House seats is widening. Virginia is the newest front: the Democratic-led legislature reconvenes Monday to start a multi-step process to amend the state constitution and redraw its congressional map. Democrats, who now hold 6 of 11 seats, could try to net two to three more. “We’re not going to unilaterally disarm,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said.  Elsewhere:  Texas: A three-judge federal panel is weighing an injunction against a new GOP map that could add up to five Republican seats; a ruling is expected before the Nov. 8–Dec. 8 filing window.  California: Voters will decide Nov. 4 on Democratic leaders’ plan to counter Texas; Democrats could win up to 48 of 52 seats (from 43), imperiling Reps. Doug LaMalfa and Kevin Kiley.  Ohio: A bipartisan deadline likely will be missed Oct. 31, shifting map-drawing to the GOP legislature by Nov. 30; Democrats Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes are at risk.  Utah: A state judge will select a remedial map after hearings; Democrats back a plan creating one Democratic-leaning district.  Missouri, North Carolina: New GOP maps aim to add one seat each by targeting Emanuel Cleaver and Don Davis; litigation is underway.  Indiana: Despite White House lobbying, Republicans lack votes for a replacement map.  Kansas: GOP leaders need a two-thirds vote to call a special session; Sharice Davids would be targeted.  Florida: The House speaker created a redistricting panel; Republicans hold 20 of 28 seats. Illinois, Maryland: Democrats signal “all options” for 2026; timelines remain uncertain.  With the House at 219–213, even marginal gains could decide control through 2026.

GO DODGERS!?:  Relations with Canada have chilled. Trump said that Ottawa “apologized” for the anti-tariff ad featuring Ronald Reagan that angered him over the weekend, and during the World Series, but complained the apology came “very late” and the ad “ran another two nights.” He added he’s “not going to be meeting with” Prime Minister Mark Carney “for a while.”