Washington On One - March 31, 2025

THE LEDE:   The week was dominated by a single, extraordinary story — how Trump administration officials accidentally included a member of the press on a group chat where plans to bomb Yemen were discussed…Stefanik’s UN Nomination pulled… The automotive tariffs Trump announced last Wednesday are also due to kick in this week, and the partial carveouts for various Canadian and Mexican imports are also due to end… The speaker is looking to hold a vote next week on legislation that would restore the District of Columbia’s ability to control its budget, after Trump on Friday pressured the chamber to take up the Senate-passed bill “IMMEDIATELY.”… A new Trump executive order sets new ID requirements for voter registration and limits vote counting… Trump’s call to impeach judges who have ruled against him is going nowhere in the GOP-controlled Congress… Postmaster General Louis DeJoy quit, getting ahead of Trump’s plan to fire him… A judge said the Venezuelans the U.S. deported should get a chance to prove they aren’t gang members…Senate Environment and Public Works Chairman Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) said Wednesday she’ll introduce a resolution by April to revoke California’s authority to adopt stricter auto emissions standards…

WEEK AHEAD:  Special and state-level elections happening Tuesday…Donald Trump’s latest tariff regime unveiled Wednesday…The Senate to get moving on reconciliation with a budget vote-a-rama expected in the Senate Thursday… TikTok ban deadline looming Friday night. On top of that, we’re expecting another big Trump phone call with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and potentially the first Supreme Court ruling on the president’s efforts to deport migrants using an 18th-century wartime law… The House will take up the proof of citizenship voting bill, judicial injunction bill and CFPB rollbacks…The Senate will vote on Whitaker’s NATO nomination…Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff pick John “Razin” Caine gets a hearing in the Senate Armed Services Committee Tuesday…Democrats will also force a vote on Trump’s Canada tariffs and Sen. Bernie Sanders will force a vote on blocking arms sales to Israel.

CONFIRMATIONS:  The Senate confirmed Christopher Landau as Deputy Secretary of State, John Phelan as Secretary of the Navy, Marty Makary as the Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, Michael J.K. Kratsios as the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, Jay Bhattacharya as Director of the National Institutes of Health, Michael Faulkender as the Deputy Secretary of Treasury, and James Bishop as the Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget

SIGNALGATE:  President Trump’s national security team was caught in an information leak scandal after a reporter was accidentally added to a chatroom on messaging app Signal discussing an upcoming military strike on Houthi targets in the Middle East. Participants on the chat notably included Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. Waltz took responsibility for the incident, but despite speculation by observers, President Trump has not yet asked for his resignation.

SIGNALGATE:  President Trump has decided for now to keep national security adviser Mike Waltz despite controversy over his inclusion of a journalist in a group chat discussing a military strike. The decision has damaged Waltz’s standing within the White House, where support has eroded amid growing criticism.  While Trump’s frustration was evident in private calls, officials say the president’s primary concern was Waltz’s association with Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg, whose accidental inclusion in the chat intensified the backlash.  Despite Trump’s reprieve, Waltz remains vulnerable. Reports suggest he facilitated multiple Signal chats on sensitive issues like Russia-Ukraine peace talks and military operations. Internal divisions persist, with some officials circulating past criticisms Waltz made of Trump.  Trump’s decision reflects his reluctance to repeat past mistakes, recalling his regret over firing Mike Flynn early in his first term. Still, Waltz’s future remains uncertain as internal opposition and media scrutiny continue to mount.

HHS:  Secretary of Health & Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his intention to reduce the Department of Health & Human Services’ (HHS) headcount from 82,000 to 62,000 as part of its restructuring efforts. In addition to a smaller footprint, the HHS will consolidate its 28 divisions to 15 and its 10 regional offices into five. HHS will also establish an Administration for a Healthy America to coordinate chronic care and disease prevention programs.

STEFANIK:  President Trump’s decision to withdraw Rep. Elise Stefanik’s U.N. nomination and keep her in the House has heightened GOP electoral concerns and caused disruption on Capitol Hill.  While Stefanik won her New York district by 24 points last year, Trump and other Republicans worried a special election could pose a challenge. With the GOP’s slim House majority already at risk, Trump’s reversal underscores growing anxiety. The party is also focused on next week’s Florida special election for Mike Waltz’s seat, which has drained resources.  Trump’s shift caught lawmakers off guard, with some questioning the delay in acknowledging the political risk. House Republicans are further strained by Rep. Kat Cammack’s pregnancy, reducing votes as Speaker Mike Johnson opposes proxy voting.  Stefanik framed her return as a move to advance Trump’s agenda, though uncertainty remains over her leadership role. Michigan Rep. Lisa McClain, who took Stefanik’s old position, has no plans to step aside.

BUDGET RECONCILIATION:  Senate GOP leaders plan to advance a budget resolution as early as Wednesday to accelerate President Trump’s agenda through a party-line bill. Majority Leader John Thune aims to pass it before the weekend, though a marathon vote-a-rama may push the timeline to Friday.  The Senate parliamentarian must approve the use of a current policy baseline, allowing Republicans to extend tax cuts without counting them as added costs. A decision is expected by midweek.  While Thune wants progress before the Easter recess, some fiscal hawks oppose the plan’s minimal spending cuts. Senate and House Republicans remain divided, with House GOP leaders criticizing the Senate’s low deficit reduction targets.  The resolution is expected to propose a $1 billion spending cut floor in the Senate compared to the House’s $1.5 trillion. Additionally, the Senate may push for a higher defense budget and a $5 trillion debt increase. Internal disagreements persist, risking delays before the mid-April recess.

LIBERATION DAY: The Trump administration is finalizing its tariff strategy before a Wednesday deadline, debating whether to impose targeted tariffs on specific countries or a blanket tariff affecting most trading partners.  While Trump has suggested a reciprocal plan matching tariffs imposed by other nations, he is also considering broad tariffs of up to 20%. His preference for a simple policy targeting trade deficit countries remains evident.  The administration is also weighing industry-specific tariffs on critical minerals. Details may emerge in a report from the U.S. Trade Representative’s office on Tuesday.  Legal concerns are mounting over Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for tariffs, with Democrats, led by Sen. Tim Kaine, preparing a resolution to challenge the move.  Businesses warn of rising consumer costs, especially in the auto sector. Economic uncertainty grows as Republicans attempt to balance Trump’s aggressive trade stance with ongoing tax-cut initiatives.  

SPECIAL ELECTIONS:  Florida holds two special elections tomorrow to replace scandal-hit Trump AG pick Matt Gaetz, who never joined the Cabinet, and national security adviser Mike Waltz, whose future is uncertain.  Republican Jimmy Patronis is expected to easily win Gaetz’s old panhandle seat. The race for Waltz’s seat is tighter, but a Democratic upset is unlikely. Despite raising 10 times more than GOP opponent Randy Fine, Democrat Josh Weil has little institutional support, and the DCCC hasn’t invested in the Trump +30 district. Republicans remain concerned, with one GOP operative criticizing Fine for complacency, adding pressure in the final hours.

DEPORTATIONS:  Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials used a controversial scorecard system to assess whether Venezuelans in the U.S. had ties to the Tren de Aragua (TdA) gang, leading to deportations under the 1798 Alien Enemies Act. The "Alien Enemy Validation Guide," revealed in court filings by ACLU and Democracy Forward lawyers, instructed officers to assign points for alleged TdA-related activities, including criminal convictions and tattoos.  Critics argue the system led to wrongful deportations, including that of an asylum-seeking gay man with crown tattoos unrelated to the gang. He was sent to a notorious Salvadoran prison. Conservative commentators Rod Dreher and Andrew McCarthy have condemned the practice, fueling public backlash. As scrutiny grows, questions remain about ICE’s reliance on questionable evidence and the broader impact of Trump's mass deportation policies. Expect further legal challenges and political fallout.

CRYPTO:  House Financial Services will vote Wednesday on a bipartisan bill to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins, digital tokens pegged to assets like the dollar. Led by Republican Rep. Bryan Steil and Chair French Hill, the industry-backed legislation has support from three committee Democrats, with Republicans optimistic about gaining more bipartisan backing.  Ranking Member Maxine Waters is expected to oppose the bill, citing concerns over Trump and his family’s crypto ties. Despite the divide, the bill has a strong chance of passage with support from both chambers and the White House.  The House version will need to be reconciled with similar Senate legislation awaiting a floor vote. Lawmakers see this as a significant step toward regulating the fast-growing stablecoin market, with proponents arguing it will provide consumer protection and market stability while fostering innovation.

UKRAINE:  President Vladimir Putin’s call for interim governance in Ukraine, effectively sidelining Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, riled the White House this week.   Trump criticized Putin’s comments as undermining peace efforts.  In an NBC interview, Trump expressed anger over Putin’s remarks and warned of imposing secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil. He stated that nations purchasing from Russia would face restrictions on selling products to the U.S.  The threat marks a shift from Trump’s previous praise for Putin. It follows stalled negotiations and ongoing strikes on energy infrastructure, despite a declared cease-fire. Trump’s frustration has intensified amid the lack of progress.  If implemented, secondary tariffs could significantly impact global oil markets, as Russia is a major producer. While sanctions on Russia’s energy sector could strain its economy, they might also raise oil prices worldwide, with repercussions for American consumers and global markets.

JUDGES: Republican senators warn that efforts to impeach Judge James Boasberg, who blocked Trump’s deportation of alleged Venezuelan gang members and is handling a lawsuit on the Signal chat controversy, would stall in the Senate.  Senior Republicans told The Hill they oppose Speaker Mike Johnson’s suggestion to defund courts that rule against Trump’s agenda. Johnson argues Congress can use its power of the purse to target “hostile” courts.  However, Senate Republicans are pushing back, fearing political backlash and concerns that a future Democratic administration could retaliate. "We can’t impeach every judge we dislike," said Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska).

AI:  Michael Kratsios, newly confirmed to lead the Office of Science and Technology Policy, is stepping into a pivotal role as the U.S. faces mounting competition from China in artificial intelligence.  China’s DeepSeek startup recently alarmed lawmakers by releasing a powerful AI model at lower costs than its U.S. counterparts. In response, the Trump administration blacklisted several Chinese companies to restrict access to advanced American chips.  A former deputy to venture capitalist Peter Thiel, Kratsios previously oversaw defense innovation policy in the first Trump administration. Now, he must coordinate AI policy across agencies and review industry suggestions for Trump’s AI plan.  Kratsios will work closely with AI and crypto czar David Sacks and adviser Sriram Krishnan, both with Silicon Valley ties. Lawmakers worry Trump’s spending cuts could slow AI advancements, while allies voice concerns about semiconductor export controls potentially pushing countries toward Chinese alternatives.  Kratsios says he remains committed to advancing U.S. technological leadership through research, standards-setting, and global partnerships.

BIG LAW:  President Trump’s pressure campaign on major law firms is a striking example of his second-term revenge efforts — and it’s proving effective.  Skadden Arps agreed to provide $100 million in free legal services for the administration and fund fellowships for conservative causes. Similarly, Paul, Weiss pledged $40 million in pro bono work.  Trump also issued executive orders freezing security clearances for lawyers at firms with past ties to investigations against him, including Covington & Burling, WilmerHale, Jenner & Block, and Perkins Coie.  While some firms acquiesced to avoid losing clients and talent, others, like Jenner & Block, WilmerHale, and Perkins Coie, are challenging Trump’s actions in court.

GAZA:  Israel and Hamas signaled over the weekend that efforts for a renewed ceasefire in Gaza were underway. The developments come less than two weeks after the breakdown of a temporary truce, after which Israel resumed its air and ground campaigns in the enclave. Hamas said on Saturday that it had accepted a proposal for a new ceasefire. Israel said it, too, had received a proposal via third-party mediators and had responded with a counterproposal in coordination with the U.S.

WOW:  … Indiana Jones would want to pore over declassified agency documents that describe how the CIA used unusual methods in the 1980s in “Project Sun Streak" to try to find the ancient Ark of the Covenant. It’s still undiscovered, by the way.  In documents first declassified in 2000, the CIA recorded how it used "remote viewers" to undertake a special search. The psychics did not know the experiment was about the Ark, a sacred, gold-covered wooden chest constructed sometime around 1445 BC carrying the Ten Commandments, according to Biblical history.   In a session in December 1988, “viewer #32” pointed to an Arabic-speaking area of the Middle East as the site of an object the psychic described in detail and said was “protected by entities.”