Washington On One - September 15, 2025

THE LEDE:  Democrats dig in against GOP budget strategy, heightening odds of shutdown… Labor Department reported Tuesday that the nation had created nearly 1 million fewer jobs from March 2024 to March 2025… Inflation rises, jobless claims accelerate…Political violence claims the life of MAGA leader Charlie Kirk at college debate…Trump administration asks appeals court to OK Lisa Cook firing before Fed meeting…Senate Republicans invoke ‘nuclear option’ to change rules to confirm Trump nominees…Trump says Memphis is next target of federal crime crackdown…Following Israeli strike, Qatar leans on Trump to counter ‘unhinged’ Netanyahu…Fired FBI officials sue Kash Patel, alleging ‘campaign of retribution’…Chuck Schumer ambushes Senate Republicans with amendment to force vote on Epstein files, amendment fails by 1 vote…Russian drones enter into Polish (they’re in NATO remember) airspace, Poles request Article IV meeting… Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are in Spain for the second day of talks with Chinese officials meant to bridge the two countries’ trade relationship…In her new book, Kamala Harris calls Biden’s decision to run ‘recklessness’…

NUMBERS:  The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4 percent last month, up from a monthly gain of 0.2 percent in July, and 2.9 percent over the past 12 months. The numbers were in line with the expectations of economists…US Consumer Sentiment fell in September to the lowest since May and long-term inflation expectations rose for the second straight month  The preliminary September sentiment index declined to 55.4 from 58.2 in August, according to the University of Michigan… Wholesale prices deflated in August, coming in well shy of expectations…Unemployment filings came in at 263,000, surpassing estimates of 235,000.

THE WEEK AHEAD:  The Senate is expected to vote this afternoon on a motion to invoke cloture on the nomination for Stephen Miran, a staunch Trump ally, to fill a separate vacant seat on the board of governors. Once that vote wraps up, the Senate can vote to confirm him shortly after — setting Miran up to join the Fed meeting mere hours later.  Senate GOP moves to confirm 48 Trump sub-Cabinet nominees following nominations rules change. All the nominees received bipartisan support in committee. New rules change permits an unlimited number of sub-Cabinet nominees to be grouped en banc in one vote - sometime on Sept 17.  The House this week will vote on four GOP-backed bills to reshape policing and criminal justice in Washington, D.C., including a measure granting the White House sole authority to nominate local judges. Other proposals would lower the age minors can be tried as adults for serious crimes, loosen restrictions on police vehicle pursuits, and bar the D.C. Council from reducing mandatory minimum sentences for youth offenders. Republicans, led by Oversight Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.), argue the measures respond to “soft-on-crime” policies fueling juvenile violence. Democrats counter they undermine D.C. self-rule.  Separately, the House will consider energy and infrastructure bills to prioritize dispatchable power sources, streamline cross-border pipeline permits, and reestablish a coal industry advisory council.  Lawmakers will also vote on 18 measures under suspension of the rules, ranging from veterans’ health care and telemedicine to reauthorizing small business research programs. Simple majorities are needed for bills under a rule; suspensions require two-thirds.

HEARINGS OF NOTE:  Monday. The House Rules Committee will meet to prepare several bills for floor consideration.  Tuesday. The Senate Judiciary Committee will have FBI Director Kash Patel for an oversight hearing. We expect that the killing of Charlie Kirk will be on the agenda.  Wednesday. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will have a business meeting to re-vote on the nominees that were sent back to the panel.  The Senate HELP Committee will have a hearing with Susan Monarez, the ousted director of the CDC.  The House Judiciary Committee will have Patel to testify. The House Financial Services Committee will have a hearing on reauthorizing the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002.  Thursday. The House Oversight Committee will have D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser, D.C. Council Chair Phil Mendelson and D.C. Attorney General Brian Schwalb.

SENATE RULES:  Senate Republicans on Thursday triggered the “nuclear option,” changing chamber rules to expedite confirmation of President Trump’s stalled sub-Cabinet nominees. The 53-43 party-line vote allows GOP leaders to approve nominees “en bloc,” clearing a backlog of nearly 150 awaiting confirmation.  Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said Democrats had stalled for months, despite having originally proposed a similar framework under Biden. “It’s time to move. It’s time to quit stalling,” Thune declared on the floor. Democrats argued they were close to a bipartisan deal and accused Republicans of impatience. Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) noted the sides were “achingly close” before Republicans acted.  The new rules permit unlimited nominees to be grouped together for a single vote but exclude Cabinet, judicial, and Supreme Court nominees, which remain subject to lengthier debate. The first vote under the new rules, expected next week, will cover 48 nominees, including several ambassadors such as Kimberly Guilfoyle (Greece) and Callista Gingrich (Switzerland and Liechtenstein).  Thursday’s move is the latest step in a decade-long erosion of Senate norms. Democrats first invoked the nuclear option in 2013 for executive and lower-court nominees. Republicans extended it in 2017 to cover Supreme Court picks, enabling the confirmation of Justice Neil Gorsuch.  Somewhere we know a certain former WV Senator, -no not the guy who lived on a boat, the guy before him, ok fine Senator Byrd- is looking at the Chamber disapprovingly.

APPROPRIATIONS:  Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) warned Thursday that any stopgap government funding deal must include major health care concessions from Republicans. Without them, they vowed, Democrats will block the measure, risking a shutdown after Sept. 30.  “Health care is being decimated on all different fronts—people are going to die, lose jobs, lose health care,” Schumer said. “On this issue, we’re totally united. Republicans must meet us in a true bipartisan negotiation or they won’t get our votes.”  Jeffries echoed: “We are together in defense of the health care of the American people … we will not support a partisan spending agreement that continues to rip it away.”  Democrats are demanding two changes: extending enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies set to expire this year, and rolling back nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts from the GOP’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Analysts warn up to 22 million Americans could face higher premiums if subsidies lapse during open enrollment starting Nov. 1.

CHALRIE KIRK:  The assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, 31, has intensified debate over political violence and the safety of public figures. Kirk was fatally shot Wednesday at Utah Valley University. His alleged killer, Tyler Robinson, 22, will be arraigned Tuesday.  Kirk’s death deeply affected the White House and President Trump, who counted him as a loyal ally and adviser. Officials described shock and grief, while Vice President Vance credited Kirk for helping his own rise. Trump blamed “the left” for fueling violence and suggested Robinson face the death penalty, though Utah Gov. Spencer Cox said the motive remains unclear.  Lawmakers across parties urged calm. Speaker Mike Johnson called Kirk’s killing a “turning point,” urging leaders to “turn down the rhetoric.” Sen. Lindsey Graham called it “an attack on a political movement,” while Sen. Peter Welch warned rising violence may be “baked in.”  The attack comes amid rising threats: Capitol Police logged more than 9,400 against lawmakers in 2024, double 2017 levels. Recent incidents include the murder of former Minnesota Speaker Melissa Hortman, an arson attempt at the Pennsylvania governor’s mansion, and assassination attempts against Trump.  Cox and others blamed social media as an accelerant for extremism. He urged Americans to “log off” and reconnect in their communities, calling online radicalization a growing national crisis

TARIFFS:  resident Trump’s most significant economic initiative — sweeping global tariffs imposed under emergency powers — is now headed to the Supreme Court. On Tuesday, the justices fast-tracked the case, setting arguments for the first week of November.  At stake is Trump’s ability to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify his “Liberation Day” tariffs and targeted levies on Canada, China, and Mexico. A loss could end his trade agenda; a win could expand presidential authority over tariffs and foreign commerce.  The Court consolidated two cases: one from the U.S. Court of International Trade, which ruled IEEPA does not grant unlimited tariff power, and a second from a federal district court, ensuring jurisdiction if the justices narrow the trade court’s authority.  Both the administration and challengers — small businesses and Democratic-led states — urged quick review, citing national stakes. Solicitor General D. John Sauer warned uncertainty has disrupted trade talks, while plaintiffs argue only Congress holds tariff power.  By scheduling arguments within 60 days, the Court signaled urgency comparable to Bush v. Gore and other expedited Trump-era cases.

PUBLIC SAFETY:  President Donald Trump announced plans to deploy the National Guard to Memphis, escalating his administration’s efforts to combat crime in Democratic-led cities. Trump told Fox News that Memphis was “deeply troubled” and said the move had the support of Mayor Paul Young, though Shelby County Mayor Lee Harris opposed it as “anti-democratic.”  The decision follows federal interventions in Washington, DC—where Trump placed the police under federal control—and Los Angeles, where a judge ruled his troop deployment illegal. Tennessee Governor Bill Lee expressed support, citing ongoing federal and state operations against violent crime.  Trump referenced conversations with Union Pacific CEO Jim Vena, who described needing armored protection in downtown Memphis. With one of the nation’s highest homicide rates, Memphis has become the latest test of Trump’s reliance on military force for domestic policy. The move is expected to intensify legal battles over presidential authority.

THE FED:  The Justice Department urged a federal appeals court to reinstate President Trump’s removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, seeking a ruling before the Fed’s Tuesday policy meeting. DOJ attorney Daniel Aguilar argued the district court “fundamentally erred” in blocking Trump’s action, calling it a lawful exercise of Article II authority.  U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb ruled Cook’s firing likely violated the Federal Reserve Act, finding governors may only be removed for conduct tied to their official duties. Cook’s lawyer, Abbe Lowell, said the allegations — tied to 2021 mortgage filings flagged in FHFA referrals — were already disclosed during her 2022 Senate confirmation and insisted she “did not ever commit mortgage fraud.”  The administration contends Trump had cause, citing misconduct that undermines confidence in the Fed. Cook argues her ouster reflects Trump’s effort to exert political control over the central bank amid disputes on interest rates.

QATAR: The U.S. and Qatar are reassessing their security partnership following Israeli strikes in Doha that killed six, including five Hamas officials and a Qatari guard. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed further attacks if Hamas leaders are not expelled.  Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari denounced Netanyahu as “unhinged” and confirmed high-level talks with Washington to strengthen security ties. He welcomed President Trump’s condemnation of the strike, while warning it marked a historic shift: “Now, the gravest concern we have is being attacked by Israel.”  Qatar, long a broker in hostage and ceasefire negotiations, hosts Hamas’s political office at U.S. urging since 2012. Al-Ansari said mediation efforts continue despite “extreme pressure” and Netanyahu’s actions, which he argued undermine chances for a truce.  The Sept. 9 attack has divided Washington. While Trump expressed frustration with Netanyahu, senior Republicans, including Sens. Lindsey Graham, Roger Wicker, and James Risch, backed Israel’s right to strike Hamas. Al-Ansari countered that Israel targeted a residential neighborhood with schools, calling it “an attack on a sovereign state” and warning it jeopardizes U.S. forces stationed in Qatar.  The incident also threatens Trump’s broader Middle East agenda, particularly the Abraham Accords, which Doha officials say are at risk if Netanyahu prioritizes dominance over regional integration.

RUSSIA:  President Trump signaled possible action against Russia as NATO allies convened to address Moscow’s latest provocation. On Wednesday, NATO jets downed Russian drones that crossed into Polish airspace.  Russia’s Defense Ministry dismissed the violation as accidental, claiming the drones strayed while targeting Ukraine. European leaders called it intentional, prompting an emergency Article 4 NATO meeting.  Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned his country faces its gravest threat since World War II. “This provocation exceeds existing boundaries and is incomparably more dangerous from Poland’s point of view than all the others,” he said, while stressing Poland is not “on the brink of war.”  Trump, who has pressured Vladimir Putin to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, posted cryptically on Truth Social: “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!”  The incident follows Trump’s recent White House meeting with Polish President Karol Nawrocki. Lawmakers called for immediate sanctions. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) urged “crippling” penalties on Moscow, while Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) pledged Congress would authorize “bone-crushing” sanctions at Trump’s discretion.  Russia has intensified strikes on Kyiv, killing more than 20 and damaging a government building in recent days.

TIKTOK:  The U.S. and China are “very close” to resolving the TikTok dispute, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday as trade talks resumed in Madrid. Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng for a second day of discussions.  “I think on the TikTok deal itself, we are very close or we’ve resolved the issue. There are a range of other asks that are unresolved,” Bessent told reporters, adding that Beijing made an “aggressive ask” without elaborating. Greer noted continued differences on trade imbalances, saying no clear path forward has emerged.  Talks come ahead of a possible Trump–Xi summit in South Korea next month, with both sides intensifying diplomatic engagement. ByteDance’s TikTok faces a U.S. deadline this week to finalize a deal allowing it to continue operations. Reuters reported the administration is expected to again extend the divestiture deadline.

FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF NOT GOING AWAY:  Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) surprised GOP leaders Wednesday by filing an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act requiring Attorney General Pam Bondi to release all unclassified records tied to Jeffrey Epstein. Schumer attached the proposal to Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker’s (R-Miss.) substitute amendment, catching Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) off guard as he sought to move the defense bill before the Rosh Hashanah recess.  “Republicans are going to have to vote on it. We’ll keep fighting until these files are fully released,” Schumer posted on social media. His measure mirrors bipartisan House legislation by Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.).  Republicans, who had been negotiating amendments, viewed the maneuver as hostile and warned it could disrupt bipartisan talks. Thune, while voicing support for transparency, emphasized DOJ has already released many files and said protecting victims’ rights must remain paramount. He left open whether the Senate would act on Epstein-related legislation if passed by the House. Senate Republicans narrowly defeated an amendment that would have directed the Department of Justice to release all of its files pertaining to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.  Senate Republicans narrowly defeated the amendment.   However, two Republicans, Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.), broke with GOP leaders and voted against tabling the Epstein amendment, underscoring divisions on the right over the case

KISSING AND TELLING DC STYLE:  The first excerpts from former Vice President Kamala Harris’s book, 107 Days, cast blame on President Biden and his aides for her 2024 election defeat to Donald Trump. Harris writes that Biden’s decision to seek reelection was “recklessness,” though she argued it would have been “self-serving” for her to ask him to step aside. “It’s Joe and Jill’s decision. We all said that, like a mantra, as if we’d all been hypnotized… In retrospect, I think it was recklessness,” she recalls.  The book highlights her compressed campaign window after Biden dropped out following a disastrous debate that cemented concerns about his age. Harris notes Biden “got tired” but rejects claims of incapacity. She also alleges his staff undermined her vice presidency by fueling negative narratives, writing: “Their thinking was zero-sum: If she’s shining, he’s dimmed.”  107 Days underscores Harris’s view that Biden’s choices, and his team’s actions, helped pave Trump’s path to victory.