Washington on One - June 22, 2026

Washington on One Page

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DGA GROUP GOVERNMENT RELATIONS      •      Week of June 22, 2026

THe LEDE— THE WEEK’S SIX BIGGEST

1.   Iran war ends. The U.S. and Iranian presidents signed an MoU June 17, setting a 60-day ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, winding down the Lebanon front, and opening a technical track on enrichment and the HEU stockpile.

2.   §702 lapses. Title VII / Section 702 expired at midnight June 12 — the first lapse since 2008 — after the Senate failed cloture 47–52 (June 5) and the House fell short on a short-term patch 198–218 (June 11). Collection continues under March FISC certifications.

3.   DNI musical chairs. Bill Pulte was slated to assume acting DNI June 19; Trump instead named Jay Clayton (U.S. Attorney, SDNY) as the formal nominee — a confirmation fight that now braids into the 702 reform track.

4.   First housing bill in a generation. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act (H.R. 6644) reached a bicameral deal June 16 (Scott–Warren–Hill–Waters). A House floor vote is expected on return (~June 23), sending it to the President. It carries institutional-investor single-family limits and a Fed CBDC ban with a stablecoin carveout.

5.   Warsh Fed holds, hawkish. In Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting (June 16–17), the FOMC held at 3.50–3.75%, stripped forward guidance, and ran a 130-word statement. Markets now price a possible hike as early as October.

6.   Defense money moves. HASC cleared the FY27 NDAA (H.R. 8800) 44–12; Trump is pressing a “Recon 3.0” $350B defense reconciliation package; Senate Appropriations Chair Collins aims to move four FY27 bills before the recess.

WHAT MOVED LAST WEEK (JUNE 15–21)

•    Iran MoU signed June 17 — executed electronically after the Bürgenstock ceremony was scrapped; Trump defended the deal at the G7 in France and dismissed a reported $300B figure as “fake news.”

•    FOMC June 16–17 — hold at 3.50–3.75%; SEP lifted 2026 headline PCE to 3.6% and trimmed GDP to 2.2%; oil round-tripped from ~$113 (April) to ~$76.

•    May data — nonfarm payrolls +172k; unemployment 4.3%; May CPI 4.2% headline / 2.9% core.

•    June 16 primaries — Oklahoma (Hern wins GOP Senate; governor to an Aug. 25 runoff), Georgia GOP Senate runoff (Mike Collins beats Dooley → faces Ossoff), South Carolina, DC; CA-14 special.

•    Housing text — unified ROAD Act language released June 16; the Senate had passed its version 89–10 (March), the House its own 396–13 (May).

•    Redistricting — Florida’s Supreme Court let the DeSantis congressional maps stand for the 2026 midterms; the underlying constitutional fight continues.

FEATURE 1

The Ceasefire Economy

The 2026 Iran war — which ran from the Feb. 28 opening strikes to the June 17 memorandum — formally closed last week. The framework sets a 60-day ceasefire, reopens the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, winds down the Lebanon front, and opens a 60-day technical phase on Iran’s enrichment levels and highly-enriched-uranium stockpile, with sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets (figures disputed) to be negotiated. The planned Switzerland signing ceremony was scrapped for an electronic exchange, and a follow-on technical session was postponed.

The macro read-through is energy. WTI spiked to roughly $113 in April at the height of the Strait disruption and has since fallen to about $76 as the ceasefire held. That round-trip is the central wildcard in an inflation picture that already carried May headline CPI to 4.2% and pushed the Warsh Fed into an openly hawkish posture.

DGA View — The war’s end removes the most acute tail risk on the board, but the 60-day clock — not the signature — is the operative deadline. Clients with energy-price, shipping, or supply-chain exposure should treat mid-August as the live checkpoint: a clean technical phase locks in the disinflationary path the Fed is counting on, while a stall reintroduces the Strait premium just as the Section 122 tariff clock and the FY27 appropriations calendar collide.

FEATURE 2

The First Housing Bill in a Generation

The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act (H.R. 6644) reached a bipartisan, bicameral agreement on June 16, with Senate Banking’s Tim Scott and Elizabeth Warren and House Financial Services’ French Hill and Maxine Waters releasing unified text. The Senate passed its version 89–10 in March; the House cleared its own 396–13 in May; the intervening months reconciled institutional-homebuyer limits, FHA multifamily provisions, disaster-recovery grants, and community-banking language. The package is supply-focused and, per CBO, does not score — budget neutrality was itself a condition of its eligibility as an NDAA vehicle.

Two riders carry outsized weight. First, statutory limits on large institutional investors crowding families out of single-family markets — moderated after the Mortgage Bankers Association warned that earlier drafts would choke built-to-rent financing. Second, a bar on a Federal Reserve retail central bank digital currency through Dec. 31, 2030, with an explicit carveout for private dollar-backed stablecoins — the same CBDC language that sank the House’s FISA vehicle in April, now finding a home. The House is expected to vote on return (~June 23), sending the bill to the President.

DGA View — This is the rare must-watch that hits housing, banking, and digital-assets desks at once. The institutional-investor language is the provision to read closely — the final text softens the holding/divestiture restrictions that alarmed BTR lenders, but the definition of “large investor” and the compliance perimeter will drive real exposure. On the digital-assets side, a federal CBDC moratorium paired with a stablecoin carveout effectively clears competitive runway for private issuers.

BEYOND THE HILL

•    Surveillance goes dark — after the Senate cloture failure (47–52; seven Republicans joined Democrats) and the House’s short-term miss (198–218 under suspension), Title VII / §702 lapsed June 12 for the first time since 2008. Collection continues under FISC certifications approved in March and reported to run to ~March 2027; what lapses now is the statute’s oversight architecture, not the capability. The path forward runs through a reform-inclusive bill (the SAFE Act and companions).

•    DNI — with Pulte’s acting role drawing bipartisan criticism, Trump named Jay Clayton as the formal DNI nominee; the confirmation calendar will intersect the 702 reform negotiations.

•    Tariffs — following February’s Supreme Court IEEPA ruling (Learning Resources v. Trump, 6–3), a 15% Section 122 surcharge stands in for the struck reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs but carries a hard 150-day cap (~late July) absent congressional extension. Roughly $175B in IEEPA refunds sit in the Court of International Trade pipeline; USTR is opening Section 301 investigations on major partners. USMCA-qualifying goods, pharmaceuticals, and critical minerals remain carved out.

•    Reconciliation — Trump is pressing a “$350 billion Recon 3.0” defense package plus an elections overhaul. The NDAA chairman’s mark deliberately stayed silent on whether to honor reconciliation commitments, leaving that fight for the fall appropriations cycle.

EXECUTIVE & REGULATORY ACTION

•    Medicaid (CMS) — an interim final rule (CMS-2454-IFC), issued June 1, imposes an 80-hour/month work / community-engagement condition on the Medicaid expansion population (adults 19–64). Effective July 31; states must comply by Jan. 1, 2027; it reaches all 41 expansion states, including California. CMS projects ~2.3M fewer FY27 enrollees (CBO: ~5.3M more uninsured by 2034). Notably, the statute bars managed-care plans from making compliance determinations, and the medical-frailty exemption runs tighter than the law.

•    Iran sanctions (Treasury/OFAC) — the MoU provides that relief begins on signing via executive action: Treasury to issue waivers for Iranian crude, products and derivatives plus associated banking, insurance and transport, a no-new-sanctions pledge for the 60-day interim, and frozen-asset usability to be sequenced in talks. OFAC issued an Iran-related general license June 22. Counsel caution that relief is interim and not yet fully operational pending OFAC guidance.

•    Federal workforce (EO, June 3) — a new executive order reclassifies ~8,000 senior policy-influencing career positions into at-will “Schedule Policy/Career” (the Schedule F revival, building on EO 13957); a companion order addressed customs enforcement.

•    Critical minerals / phosphate (Commerce/ITC) — phosphate and potash have sat on the Critical Minerals List since Feb. 18 (with the Defense Production Act invoked for domestic elemental phosphorus). The ITC is proceeding to full five-year sunset reviews of the Morocco/Russia phosphate CVD orders; the lead Moroccan rate was cut to ~2.11% and the government dropped its appeal in March, and a farm-state bill would scrap the duties outright.

•    Connected-tech & supply-chain dockets — no new federal action this week. Commerce’s connected-vehicle ICTS rule (software prohibitions from MY2027, hardware from MY2030) and the FCC Covered List drone/router actions remain in force, with the Blue UAS / domestic-product carve-outs set to terminate Jan. 1, 2027; BIOSECURE (enacted Dec. 18 in the FY26 NDAA) awaits the next DoD 1260H list update and OMB / FAR Council rulemaking.

PRIMARIES

June 9 — Recap

•    Maine, Senate (D): Graham Platner is the Democratic nominee to challenge Sen. Susan Collins, the cycle’s top Republican-held target in a Harris state. Nevada, South Dakota, and North Dakota also voted.

June 16 — Results

•    Georgia, Senate (GOP runoff): Rep. Mike Collins beat former football coach Derek Dooley 55–45 to win the nod against Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). Trump endorsed Collins two days out; Gov. Brian Kemp had backed Dooley. Ossoff — the only Democrat defending a Trump-won state — anchors the most expensive Senate race on the map.

•    Georgia, Governor (GOP runoff): In a rare Trump endorsement loss, self-funding businessman Rick Jackson (>$100M of his own money) beat Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones. Jackson faces Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor, for the open seat (Kemp term-limited).

•    Oklahoma, Senate (GOP): Rep. Kevin Hern (Trump-endorsed) won the nomination for the seat Markwayne Mullin vacated to become DHS Secretary; the Democratic Senate primary heads to an Aug. 25 runoff. Safe R.

•    Oklahoma, Governor: The GOP race goes to an Aug. 25 runoff between AG Gentner Drummond (26.5%) and Trump-endorsed former state senator Mike Mazzei (25.9%) out of a nine-way field; Democrats nominated state Rep. Cyndi Munson. Open seat (Stitt term-limited); $34M+ spent.

•    Oklahoma, down-ballot: TW Shannon (R) won Lt. Governor and Jon Echols (R) won Attorney General; OK-1 (Hern’s open seat) goes to a GOP runoff; voters also weighed State Question 832, raising the minimum wage to $15 by 2029.

•    Alabama, Senate (GOP): Barry Moore captured the nomination for the open seat (Tommy Tuberville is running for governor). Safe R.

•    California-14 (special primary): Under the top-two format, Democrats Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez advanced to an Aug. 18 special general for the East Bay seat Eric Swalwell vacated; the seat stays Democratic. DC also held municipal primaries.

•    Redistricting note: The Supreme Court cleared Alabama to use a GOP-friendly congressional map for the midterms, eliminating a seat held by a Black Democrat — another entry in the cycle’s mid-decade map wars.

June 23 — Races of Interest (Maryland, New York, Utah; plus South Carolina runoffs)

•    South Carolina, Governor (GOP runoff): AG Alan Wilson vs. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette for the open seat (McMaster term-limited), after a five-way June 9 primary that also featured Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman. The winner faces Democrat Jermaine Johnson — the marquee contest of the day.

•    New York, Governor: Effectively settled — Gov. Kathy Hochul (running with Adrienne Adams) faces only token primary opposition after Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado exited in February, and Trump-endorsed Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman is the GOP frontrunner. The action is down-ballot, where several New York House Democrats face challenges from their left.

•    Maryland: Open-seat House primaries are the story — MD-5 (Steny Hoyer retiring), plus competitive MD-6 and MD-7 Democratic contests. Gov. Wes Moore (D) is up for renomination; no Senate seat on the ballot.

•    Utah: House primaries under a court-ordered new map that creates a Democratic-leaning Salt Lake County district; UT-4 is open (Burgess Owens retiring).

Map check: Republicans hold roughly a 53–45 Senate edge; Democrats need a net of four to flip, while Republicans can shed up to three and hold control on VP Vance’s tiebreak. The June board has set the marquee matchups — Maine (Platner vs. Collins), Georgia (Collins vs. Ossoff), and the safe-R open seats in Oklahoma and Alabama.

SECTOR IMPLICATIONS

Sector	Status	Read
Trade & Tariffs	HOT	Section 122 15% surcharge 150-day cap nears (~late July); $175B IEEPA refund pipeline at CIT; Section 301 probes opening; USMCA / pharma / critical-minerals carveouts intact.
Digital Assets & Financial Services	HOT	Federal retail CBDC moratorium through 2030 with a stablecoin carveout, riding the ROAD Act to the President.
Housing & Real Estate	HOT	ROAD Act institutional-investor single-family limits plus manufactured-housing, multifamily, and FHA provisions; House vote ~June 23.
Defense & Iran	HOT	FY27 NDAA out of HASC 44–12; “Recon 3.0” $350B push; Iran ceasefire holds on a 60-day clock.
Intelligence & Surveillance	HOT	§702 lapsed June 12; Clayton DNI nomination; reform-track negotiation live.
Political & Electoral Risk	HOT	June 9 / 16 primaries set marquee Senate matchups (Maine, Georgia, Oklahoma); FL maps upheld; midterms Nov. 3.
Medicaid Managed Care	HOT	CMS community-engagement IFC effective July 31; states comply by Jan. 1, 2027; statute bars MCOs from compliance determinations; ~2.3M projected FY27 enrollment loss.
Monetary & Macro	WARM	Warsh Fed on hold but hawkish; hike risk by October; headline inflation 4.2%; energy the swing factor.
Pharmaceuticals & FDA	WARM	Tariff carveout preserved; drug-pricing and appropriations riders pending.
Critical Minerals	WARM	Phosphate and potash on the Critical Minerals List (DPA invoked); ITC proceeding to full five-year sunset review of the Morocco/Russia phosphate CVD orders; Section 122 carveout intact.
Media & Broadcast	WARM	NDAA amendment to bar restrictions on Pentagon press access; broader press-credential debate.
Technology & AI	WARM	AI-governance activity continuing; a specific bipartisan framework release is unconfirmed this edition (see sourcing flag).
Connected Vehicles & Autonomous Systems	STEADY	No new action this week; Commerce ICTS rule stands (software MY2027, hardware MY2030); FCC drone/router Covered List carve-outs end Jan. 1, 2027.
China-Origin Biotech	STEADY	No new action this week; BIOSECURE enacted Dec. 18 (FY26 NDAA) awaits next DoD 1260H update and OMB/FAR rulemaking.
High-Skilled Immigration	STEADY	H-1B / high-skilled posture unchanged; no new legislative movement.

THIS WEEK (JUNE 22–26)

Day	What to watch
Mon Jun 22	House returns to a legislative footing; Senate in. Final pre-recess positioning on FY27 appropriations.
Tue Jun 23	House expected to vote on the ROAD to Housing Act (H.R. 6644) → President’s desk. Primaries: Maryland, New York, Utah.
Wed Jun 24	Senate floor: FY27 appropriations (Collins targeting four bills); Clayton DNI process gets underway.
Thu Jun 25	Continued appropriations; §702 reform negotiations; Iran technical-track signals.
Fri Jun 26	Pre-July 4 recess wind-down; watch the Section 122 tariff clock and the FY27 markup calendar.

COUNTDOWN CLOCK

Item	Clock
FISA §702	LAPSED June 12; collection under FISC certifications to ~Mar. 2027 (reported).
Iran MoU	60-day ceasefire from June 17; technical track checkpoint ~mid-August.
Section 122 tariffs	150-day cap from Feb. 20–21 → ~late July absent extension.
ROAD to Housing	House vote ~June 23 → President.
Medicaid work rule	CMS IFC effective July 31; state compliance by Jan. 1, 2027.
FY27 NDAA	HASC 44–12; House floor and SASC markup pending.
FY27 appropriations	Fiscal year begins Oct. 1; four bills targeted before recess.
2026 midterms	November 3.

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