Washington On One - April 7, 2025

THE LEDE:  With an ambition to reverse globalization, Trump announces global tariffs… Stock markets in a tailspin, wiping out trillions of dollars in value and hitting many Americans’ retirement savings. JPMorgan upped the likelihood of a recession in 2025 to 60 percent… Fed’s Powell warns on tariffs: Fallout likely to be ‘significantly larger than expected…Trump hints that Musk’s time in government is coming to an end…Senate pass budget, with differing #s than the House, sending it back to the lower chamber for consideration this week… The Trump administration fired the director of the National Security Agency, his deputy and several other top NSA staffers Thursday.  Trump has also fired several officials at the National Security Council (NSC). This all comes shortly after his meeting with far-right activist and conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer, who argued some within the NSC are not loyal to him… SALT Republicans make it clear $25K cap won’t fly…Mike Johnson strikes deal with Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) on parental proxy voting…The first mass protests of the Trump 2.0 era arrived…Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) takes to the Senate floor for record breaking 25 hour speech…Democrats overperform in two special elections in FL and solidify a liberal majority in the Wisconsin state supreme court… FEMA chief given lie detector test after leak of private meeting …The Senate confirmed Matthew G. Whitaker for Permanent representative of the United States on the Council of the North Atlantic Treaty Organizations and Dr. Mehmet Oz as the Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS)…TikTok sale deadline extended… Prosecutors seek 7 years in prison for disgraced ex-US Rep. George Santos in federal fraud case…The White House issued a statement Saturday saying: "The President won his second round matchup of the Senior Club Championship today in Jupiter, FL, and advances to the Championship Round."

WEEK AHEAD: The House will take up the proof of citizenship voting bill, judicial injunction bill and CFPB rollbacks, in addition to trying to adopt the reworked budget resolution. The Senate will continue working through Trump’s nominations, including George Glass’ nomination to be ambassador to Japan and Mike Huckabee’s nomination to be ambassador to Israel.   Monday: The House Rules Committee will meet at 4 p.m. to prepare legislation for the floor.  Tuesday: The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing with USTR Jamieson Greer. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will hold a hearing on a number of ambassadorial nominees.  Wednesday: Greer will be in front of the House Ways and Means Committee. The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled “American Innovation and the Future of Digital Assets Aligning the U.S. Securities Laws for the Digital Age.”  The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for OPM and OMB nominees, including Eric Ueland. The Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing on Meta’s foreign relations and representations to the United States Congress.  Thursday: The Senate Commerce Committee will hold a hearing on seasonal time change. The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on a number of nominees, including Andrew Hughes to be deputy secretary of HUD.

NUMBERS:  The United Stated added 228,000 jobs in March…Wage growth cooled to 3.8% in March from 4% the previous month. It's been declining since the fall.

THE PUSH BACK:  The first mass protests of the Trump 2.0 era erupted yesterday, capping a week in which opposition to the president roared back to life after months of dormancy. Demonstrations spanned more than 1,300 locations across the country—from rural towns to major cities, Anchorage to Palm Beach. Protesters denounced policies they said betrayed core American values. Targets included Trump, Elon Musk, tariffs, deportations, and even Dogecoin. Signs defended vaccine science, abortion rights, Gaza, and Ukraine (“So many issues, so little cardboard,” read one in Milwaukee).  Crowd estimates varied: over 600,000 RSVPs, CNN reported attendance in the millions. Local tallies included 1,000 in Anchorage, 3,000 in Charlotte, 10,000 in Denver, 25,000 in Boston, 30,000 in Chicago, and over 100,000 in D.C.—five times what organizers expected.  The big picture: “Until this week, the 11th of Donald Trump’s second presidency, the resistance has not exactly been uppercase R,” wrote The Atlantic’s Elaine Godfrey.

LIBERATION DAY:  The global economy is reeling after Trump’s Rose Garden rollout of sweeping tariffs, triggering 19th-century-style protectionism. Trump imposed a universal 10% tariff on all imports, 54% on Chinese goods, and steep hikes on others — even taxing penguin-inhabited islands. The White House says the goal is leverage, not escalation, but allies are bracing for impact. Citi’s Andrew Hollenhorst predicts 4% core inflation; EY’s Gregory Daco warns of stagflation. JP Morgan calls it the largest U.S. tax increase since 1968. Trump appears unmoved: “Promises made, promises kept.”

CHINA:  China announced a 34% retaliatory tariff on U.S. imports starting Thursday, following Trump’s latest trade measures. Beijing condemned the move as “unilateral bullying” and added 11 U.S. firms to its “unreliable entity list,” imposed export controls on 16 others, and restricted exports of rare earths like gadolinium and samarium. A probe into U.S. medical X-ray tubes also began. Despite market concerns, Trump says the tariffs will spur domestic manufacturing and fulfill a key campaign promise.

RECONCILIATION:  The Senate passed Trump’s budget blueprint 51-48, with Sens. Collins and Paul joining Democrats in opposition. The plan now heads to a divided House, where Speaker Johnson can only afford three GOP defections  The Senate GOP’s new budget resolution landed poorly with House fiscal hawks, casting doubt on Republicans’ marquee legislation, POLITICO’s Benjamin Guggenheim reports. Reps. Chip Roy, Andy Harris, and Lloyd Smucker oppose its lack of spending cuts, while Budget Chair Jodey Arrington and Rep. Keith Self also signaled resistance. Speaker Mike Johnson insists passage is needed to unlock reconciliation. The wildcard: whether Trump can sway holdouts.

OF NOTE:  The Senate’s early Saturday budget resolution vote highlighted the challenges ahead for Majority Leader John Thune. Sens. Susan Collins and Rand Paul opposed the measure after a failed amendment to block Medicaid cuts, offered by Sens. Josh Hawley and Ron Wyden. Hawley, Collins, and Lisa Murkowski supported it; Sen. Dan Sullivan was undecided. Leadership scrambled to defeat it, fearing it would pass and require a “wraparound” vote. GOP senators worry Medicaid votes could hurt them politically, with one calling the strategy “just bad.”

A LITTLE MORE HERE:  A new poll from Trump 2024 pollster Tony Fabrizio shows most Trump voters oppose Medicaid cuts—a major hurdle for Republicans’ reconciliation savings goals, Ben Leonard reports. Forty percent of Trump voters say they or a family member have used the program.  “People have made up their minds about what they don’t want cut,” said Fabrizio Ward partner Bob Ward. While Trump and GOP lawmakers say they oppose cuts, few alternatives exist given steep deficit targets and costly policy priorities.

APPROPRIATIONS:  House Appropriations Committee Chairman Tom Cole on April 2 released guidance for FY 2026 programmatic, language, and Community Project Funding (CPF) requests in a Dear Colleagues letter. Representatives may begin submitting funding requests for FY 2026 beginning April 14 and subcommittees will begin releasing guidance for their respective appropriations bill next week. Notably, projects that were included in the House Reports for Fiscal Year 2025 are eligible for consideration in FY 2026, however, they must be resubmitted. Earmarked funding is limited to 1% of discretionary spending, including 0.5% for each chamber. House members are limited to 15 requests each. No earmarked funding can go toward for-profit entities.

THE SUPREMES:  In a win for Trump, the Supreme Court is allowing the administration to cancel $65 million in education grants targeted as part of Trump’s pledge to eliminate so-called diversity, equity and inclusion efforts.  In a 5-4 ruling Friday, the justices granted the administration’s request to terminate the grants while litigation over the issue proceeds. The high court’s action lifted an order a federal judge in Boston issued last month blocking the administration from terminating the grants for teacher-training programs in eight Democratic-led states that sued to restore the grants. Chief Justice John Roberts and the court’s three liberal justices dissented from the high court’s ruling.

MUSK:  The Trump-Musk governing partnership was always destined to be short-lived—too many egos, too much volatility, and too many political risks around Musk’s federal overhaul efforts. Now, POLITICO’s Rachel Bade reports, it’s ending.  Trump has told aides that Musk will soon step back from his high-profile role atop the DOGE initiative. For many Republicans, his exit is welcome.

TIKTOK:  The Trump administration extended TikTok’s deadline by 75 days, with Trump saying on Truth Social he hopes to work with China on a long-term solution. But a divestment deal was already finalized earlier this week—until Trump’s tariff rollout prompted Beijing to reverse course.  The deal, brokered by VP JD Vance, would have spun off TikTok’s U.S. operations into a majority American-owned company. Beijing has since blocked any sale before trade talks resume.

NATO:  As NATO foreign ministers wrapped two days in Brussels, European and Canadian leaders signaled openness to more defense spending—but balked at U.S. pressure, AP reports. Citing Trump’s renewed ties with Putin, Canada’s Mélanie Joly said, “If Russia isn’t a threat, why keep increasing spending?” The U.S. wants 5% of GDP.

BIG LAW:  A fourth major law firm struck a preemptive deal with the Trump administration yesterday to avoid being targeted by a punishing executive orde.  Milbank, the home of former acting U.S. Solicitor General, MSNBC contributor and frequent Trump critic Neal Katyal, agreed to provide “at least $100 million” in pro-bono work to causes supported by the president, among other commitments. Just like other firms who have negotiated settlements with Trump, Milbank initiated talks with the administration, according to a White House statement.

SIGNALGATE:  Yea, remember this?  Seems no one else does…and everyone has kept their jobs…

CRYPTO:  House Financial Services approved landmark crypto legislation Wednesday, creating a regulatory framework for stablecoins.  Six Democrats joined Republicans to advance the industry-backed bill. It’s the House’s first major crypto move this year and a GOP priority. The panel also backed a ban on a central bank digital currency.

PROXY VOTING:  Johnson and Rep. Anna Paulina Luna found a solution to their standoff over allowing new mothers to vote by proxy, the Florida congresswoman said in a post on X Sunday.  The agreement would use “vote pairing” — a practice under House rules allowing one member, under certain circumstances, to vote on behalf of another, absent member who would have voted differently had they been present.  Luna, in the post, thanked Trump and said she was “glad to see this resolved,” adding, “If we truly want a pro-family Congress, these are the changes that need to happen.” Last week, Republicans stopped a procedural vote that had language blocking her discharge petition, in addition to other unrelated legislation, that froze the House floor.

LOOMER:  Multiple National Security Council staffers were fired Thursday after President Trump met with far-right activist Laura Loomer, who questioned their loyalty. Three senior officials—Brian Walsh, Thomas Boodry, and David Feith—and at least two junior staffers were dismissed. Loomer raised concerns during an Oval Office meeting Wednesday attended by Trump, Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz. Loomer later confirmed the meeting, calling for “strong vetting” of staff in national security roles.