Washington on One - 9/29/2025

THE LEDE:  Gov Shutdown looms, White House tells agencies to prep mass layoffs for shutdown…Trump calls out Europe and UN in combative General Assembly return…Trump’s abrupt Ukraine shift exposes fresh frustrations with Putin…Ex-FBI Director James Comey indicted over testimony at 2020 Senate hearing… Trump’s next tariff targets: drugs, furniture and heavy trucks…White House autism-Tylenol link leads to confusion, pushback…House Democrat introduces articles of impeachment against RFK Jr…Questions surround FCC’s authority as Kimmel returns…Kennedy’s vaccine advisory panel upends shot recommendations…Former VPOTUS Harris hits the book tour circuit…FBI says it found classified documents in John Bolton’s DC office… The Justice Department has told prosecutors to draft plans to probe a group funded by liberal philanthropist George Soros…ACA enrollment drop for 2026 predicted unless Congress acts to extend subsides…Trump bills Hegseth’s unusual meeting with generals as a friendly meet-up…Trump approves TikTok deal — and gives it more time…Man found guilty of trying to assassinate Trump at Florida golf course…A tip of the Hat and prayer to rest in peace for Robert Barnett…

THE WEEK AHEAD:  President Donald Trump meets the Big Four congressional leaders today at the White House — his first such meeting since taking office and his first-ever sit-down with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a frequent critic. The session comes as Washington faces an imminent shutdown, with both parties far apart. Republicans insist on a “clean” CR through Nov. 21, while Democrats demand an extension of enhanced Obamacare subsidies, restrictions on Trump’s rescission powers, and reversal of Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.  Senate Majority Leader John Thune argues Democrats must accept the House-passed CR or face a “completely avoidable” shutdown, but Democrats see little reason to cave. Trump, guided by Speaker Mike Johnson and Thune, has leaned on claims Democrats want to fund care for undocumented immigrants. Yet internal pressure over rising premiums could force movement. For now, both sides are dug in, making today’s meeting high-stakes but likely unproductive…Interior Secretary Doug Burgum will announce “key policy initiatives” Monday related to advancing “beautiful clean coal,” according to a department advisory…Trump will welcome Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House (his fourth visit since January), with a bilateral discussion and lunch to follow, culminating in a must-watch press conference at 1:15 p.m.

NUMBERS:  43 percent of adults under age 30 say they regularly get their news from TikTok, according to a new analysis from Pew Research Center… The Trump administration has touted 400,000 deportations so far, but federal data from ICE shows roughly 158,000 deportations through July.

SHUT IT DOWN?:  The Capitol Hill debate has shifted from whether there will be a government shutdown to how long it will last. Senators return Monday, and if no funding deal passes by Tuesday night, the shutdown begins — setting up the most direct clash of President Trump’s second term.  Democrats see this as one of their few chances to resist a White House that has dictated terms for months. They are demanding reversal of pending Medicaid cuts and permanent extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies, knowing Republicans will reject both. Senate Republicans, led by Majority Leader John Thune, argue that passing a short-term funding bill is a basic duty and are preparing another vote early this week.  House Democrats, led by Hakeem Jeffries, are pressing health care as their core message — “Cancel the cuts, lower the cost, save health care.” Republicans, meanwhile, are largely stepping back, leaving Democrats the spotlight as Trump raises pressure with threats of mass federal layoffs.  The standoff reflects months of simmering conflict, and few expect a quick resolution.  Senate Republicans are looking to vote again on the House-passed continuing resolution on Tuesday. The measure would fund government through Nov. 20, but would not address expiring health care subsidies. It was blocked by Senate Democrats last week.

THIS TIME WOULD BE DIFFERENT:  The White House is preparing federal agencies for mass layoffs if government funding lapses on Oct. 1, escalating fears within a workforce already hit by cuts this year. A memo from the Office of Management and Budget directs agencies to plan reductions for any program not separately funded or aligned with President Trump’s priorities, warning that only the “minimal number” of staff needed to legally operate should be retained once funding resumes.  Unlike past shutdowns, when employees were furloughed and later returned, this plan signals permanent cuts. The prospect has left agencies scrambling, with many workers saying they’ve received little or no guidance. “We are going in blind,” said one State Department employee. At FEMA, staff worry they may be recalled without pay during storms while facing long-term job losses.  Trump has blamed Democrats, while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called the threat “intimidation.” With funding deadlines looming, both parties remain deadlocked, raising the likelihood of a shutdown with unprecedented consequences for federal workers.

TARIFFS:  President Trump on Thursday unveiled sweeping new tariffs set to take effect Oct. 1, including a 100% duty on branded or patented pharmaceuticals not manufactured in the United States. Companies with plants under construction or breaking ground will be exempt.  The move, on top of Trump’s broader reciprocal tariffs, is expected to draw sharp criticism given concerns over drug shortages and higher costs. Trump had previously floated a phased approach but ultimately opted for an immediate penalty, even threatening tariffs as high as 250%.  Additional tariffs announced include:  50% on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and related products.  30% on upholstered furniture.  25% on heavy trucks built abroad.  Trump framed the measures as protecting U.S. manufacturing and national security, citing “flooding” of imports. He has already imposed tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, and automobiles.  The pharmaceutical tariffs are likely to trigger strong industry pushback and could intensify legal scrutiny. Next month, the Supreme Court will hear arguments on whether Trump can use emergency powers to justify his sweeping trade actions.

COMEY:  Donald Trump quickly shifted from denying knowledge of a possible James Comey indictment to celebrating it with a “JUSTICE FOR AMERICA!” post. He installed Lindsey Halligan, a former insurance lawyer and his onetime personal attorney with no federal trial experience, as acting U.S. Attorney in Virginia; she signed the indictment after her predecessor resigned under pressure to bring charges.  Comey faces one count of making a false statement to Congress and one count of obstructing a congressional proceeding — each carrying up to five years in prison. He is scheduled for arraignment Oct. 9 in Alexandria, Va., where his remote 2020 Senate testimony originated.  The charges center on whether Comey knowingly approved a leak about FBI probes into Hillary Clinton’s emails and Trump’s Russia ties. Comey maintains his innocence, calling the case baseless, while noting he looks forward to trial.

THE BOSS WANTS TO SEE YOU, ALL OF YOU:  Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has abruptly ordered hundreds of generals and admirals to gather in Virginia, with no explanation provided. The Pentagon confirmed the meeting but offered no details. The Washington Post first reported the event, describing it as “rare” and “urgent.”  Roughly 800 senior officers — including top commanders in conflict zones and leaders stationed across Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific — are expected to attend. With staff and aides, attendance could top 1,000. The Post noted it is unclear how the military will manage housing and transportation on such short notice.  While meetings with senior officers are routine, experts say it is highly unusual to assemble such a large group in one location with so little lead time. Typically, gatherings of this scale require months of planning, given the global distribution of U.S. military leadership. The timing and purpose remain undisclosed.

REIMAGINING THE H1-B:  The Department of Homeland Security has proposed replacing the H-1B visa lottery with a wage-based system that gives higher-paid jobs better odds of selection. The rule, set for publication Thursday, follows the new $100,000 petition fee and Labor Department’s “Project Firewall” enforcement push.  How it would work:  Level IV (64th percentile): 4 entries  Level III (50th percentile): 3 entries  Level II (34th percentile): 2 entries  Level I (17th percentile): 1 entry DHS says the current system favors lower-wage roles, leaving higher-paying positions underrepresented. With 500,000 registrations competing for 85,000 slots in FY2025, the proposal would cut Level I workers’ odds by 48% and more than double chances for Level IV.  Supporters say the change incentivizes stronger wages and more senior roles, while still giving entry-level applicants a chance. Critics warn it could disadvantage new graduates and smaller firms unable to match large employers’ pay. Compensation beyond base salary would not count.  If finalized, the system would begin with the FY2026 lottery. DHS will accept public comments for 30 days after publication.

PUBLIC SAFETY:  After Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., President Donald Trump has turned his federal crackdown on major cities to Portland, Oregon.  On Saturday, Trump ordered the Defense Department to deploy troops in response to ongoing demonstrations outside ICE’s South Portland field office, saying they disrupted immigration enforcement. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth followed with a directive activating 200 members of the Oregon National Guard for 60 days. Oregon and Portland quickly sued, arguing the deployment is “provocative and arbitrary” and risks inciting unrest.  The case mirrors California’s earlier challenge to Trump’s Los Angeles deployment. Gov. Gavin Newsom initially won a restraining order, but the 9th Circuit cleared the federal action. Oregon officials hope for a different outcome. “This is not an invasion … not a rebellion,” said Attorney General Dan Rayfield, who cast the lawsuit as a stand against what he calls unlawful normalization of military force.  The White House defends the move, citing violent demonstrations, threats to federal officers, and even a guillotine displayed outside an ICE facility. “President Trump is lawfully directing the National Guard to protect federal assets and personnel,” spokesperson Abigail Jackson said. “These actions will make Portland safer.”

OBAMACARE MARKETPLACE:  If Congress doesn’t extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits, marketplace enrollees will begin receiving October notices showing sharp 2025 premium hikes ahead of Nov. 1 open enrollment. Analysts estimate out-of-pocket premiums would rise more than 75%, prompting significant disenrollment. Democrats want the credits extended as part of shutdown talks; House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has rejected a one-year extension (H.R. 5145) and is pressing for permanence, which CBO pegs at ~$350 billion over 10 years.  CMS says notices must go out before Nov. 1 but systems can be updated mid–open enrollment if Congress acts. Because issuers may omit specific premium and credit amounts this year, some consumers won’t see higher rates until November—or their January bill if auto-re-enrolled. State marketplaces warn pre-retirees and rural residents could face the steepest increases; Idaho’s exchange projects ~25,000 cancellations without an extension.

GAZA: The Trump administration has unveiled a sweeping 21-point peace plan for Gaza. Key provisions include an immediate ceasefire, phased Israeli withdrawal, release of Hamas-held hostages, a ban on West Bank annexation, and an international trusteeship for Gaza backed by an Arab-Muslim security force.  Trump’s objective, aides say, is to bridge gaps with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whom Trump views as politically weakened. “Bibi is on his own island,” one senior official told POLITICO. Netanyahu, however, must balance U.S. pressure with the demands of far-right coalition partners who oppose any negotiations with Hamas and favor permanent occupation of Gaza. Their threats to collapse his government constrain his options.  Netanyahu cautiously praised the U.S. proposal, telling Fox News he hopes “we can make it a go,” and met with envoy Steve Witkoff to signal openness. Still, analysts note the plan is politically perilous for him.  Meanwhile, shifting public opinion adds new pressure. Younger Americans increasingly question unconditional U.S. support for Israel, while younger Israelis trend more nationalist and religious. 

UKRAINE:  President Trump has abruptly shifted his stance on the Ukraine war, declaring that Kyiv could “fight and WIN all of Ukraine back,” a sharp turn from earlier suggestions that a peace deal would require ceding territory to Russia. The change followed a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky at the UN that left the Ukrainian leader both surprised and encouraged.  Trump’s frustration with Vladimir Putin is increasingly evident, aides and allies say. “He’s putting Russia on notice,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), noting Trump’s pledge to remove restrictions on Ukraine and NATO support. UN Ambassador Mike Waltz described the shift as born of “frustration and disappointment” with Putin.  GOP hawks like Sen. Mitch McConnell welcomed Trump’s new posture but warned it must be matched with action. Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal are pressing Trump to endorse their bipartisan sanctions bill targeting nations that import Russian oil, gas, and uranium, with tariffs as high as 500%.  Trump, meanwhile, has urged Europe to stop buying Russian energy, calling such purchases “embarrassing” and self-defeating. Whether his tough talk translates into concrete policy remains the open question.

TIKTOK:  After more than a year of negotiations, the U.S. and China are nearing a deal to spin off TikTok’s U.S. operations into a consortium expected to include Oracle, Silver Lake, and Abu Dhabi’s MGX. The move would comply with the 2023 Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which requires ByteDance to divest or shut down TikTok in the U.S.  Under President Trump’s Sept. 25 executive order, ByteDance will hold less than 20% of TikTok U.S., with Americans controlling six of seven board seats. Oracle will host U.S. user data, oversee security, and retrain a localized version of TikTok’s algorithm.  Vice President JD Vance said the deal values TikTok U.S. at $14 billion, far below earlier $35–40 billion estimates, though the app generates over $10 billion annually. The final agreement, still awaiting Beijing’s approval, will determine how ByteDance’s prized asset adapts under U.S. ownership while preserving its Gen-Z user base.

BUYER’S REMORSE?:   Republican senators are increasingly uneasy with President Trump’s backing of HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his efforts to rewrite childhood vaccine schedules against medical consensus.  Trump drew fire after warning mothers not to give newborns multiple vaccines at once and urging pregnant women to avoid Tylenol, which he linked to autism despite little evidence. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), chair of the Senate Health Committee and a physician, challenged the claim and warned it could leave women without safe pain relief.  Cassidy also expressed alarm over testimony that Kennedy pressured CDC officials to approve vaccine changes without scientific backing. GOP senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski called the reports “disturbing” and “unsettling.”  Privately, Republicans say Kennedy is becoming a liability, though Trump sees him as a political asset who brings new voters into the MAGA coalition. Still, many warn sudden vaccine policy shifts risk backlash — or worse, a future epidemic.

107 DAYS:  Kamala Harris’ book tour is reopening old wounds among Democrats still raw from the 2024 defeat. In a blitz of interviews, the former vice president rejected claims her appearance on The View cost the election, defended her choice not to pick Pete Buttigieg as her running mate, and did not rule out future political ambitions.  Her memoir, 107 Days, has drawn sharp criticism. Michael Hardaway, a Democratic strategist, called it “unhelpful and divisive,” while another adviser dismissed it as a “gossip book” at a time when voters are seeking vision. Buttigieg said he was “surprised” by Harris’ claim that his candidacy would have been too risky, insisting Americans deserve more credit. David Axelrod said if the book was meant as a relaunch, “it didn’t get off the pad.”  Harris has defended her record, praising Joe Biden while also calling his reelection bid “reckless.” She admitted she underestimated the desire for daylight between her and Biden, adding, “I’m a loyal person.”  Supporters say Harris is simply “speaking her truth.” But polling shows her favorability has slipped since October 2024, and critics warn her retelling risks cementing her image as a sore loser.

VOTERS VOTING!:   Adelita Grijalva easily won a special election Tuesday in Arizona’s 7th Congressional District, filling the seat of her late father, progressive Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D). Her victory over Republican Daniel Butierez secures Democrats the final vote needed to force House consideration of a measure compelling the Justice Department to release Jeffrey Epstein files. Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) had circulated a discharge petition that fell one signature short until now.  Grijalva is expected to continue her father’s progressive legacy, campaigning on affordable housing, environmental protection, and safe communities. She received endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.  Meanwhile, Republicans held Georgia’s state Senate District 21, but Democrat Debra Shigley’s showing narrowed the GOP margin in a district Trump carried by 34 points. Democrats touted her performance as part of a broader trend of overperformance in recent special elections.

BUT, OTHER THAN THAT EVERYTHING WORKED?  President Trump on Wednesday accused the United Nations of “triple sabotage” after an escalator mishap, a teleprompter glitch, and audio issues disrupted his visit to the General Assembly.  “A REAL DISGRACE took place at the United Nations yesterday — Not one, not two, but three very sinister events!” Trump posted on Truth Social. He described how an escalator carrying him and First Lady Melania Trump suddenly stopped, forcing them to walk the rest of the way. “It’s amazing we didn’t fall face first,” he wrote, crediting their grip on the handrails.  Trump also cited a teleprompter failure at the start of his speech, which left him reading from printed notes for 15 minutes, and complained that the sound system was “completely off.” He demanded an investigation by the U.N. and said the Secret Service was involved, urging that “all security tapes” be preserved.  The U.N., however, suggested Trump’s own team was to blame. Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said a videographer from Trump’s delegation “may have inadvertently triggered the safety function” on the escalator.  Trump wove the glitches into his remarks at the General Assembly, using them to underscore his critique of the U.N.’s effectiveness.

A LITTLE MORE ON A SHUTDOWN:  This chart summarizes the near-term and medium-term impacts of a federal government shutdown on major groups, agencies, and functions. Impacts vary depending on funding source, agency contingency plans, and duration of the lapse in appropriations. Mandatory programs and excepted activities continue, but discretionary functions pause, causing cascading effects across workforce, public services, economy, and local governments.

Group / Function	Near-Term Impacts	Medium-Term Impacts (2+ Weeks)
Federal Contractors	Stop-work orders; revenue loss; contractor staff typically do not receive back pay; cash-flow strain.	Extended layoffs, workforce attrition, restart costs; subcontractor disruptions.
Federal Employees	Hundreds of thousands furloughed; essential staff work without pay; delayed paychecks.	Morale erosion; backlog in agency restart; potential long-term staffing loss.
U.S. Military	Operations continue; service members on duty may face delayed pay.	Family financial stress if pay delays extend; potential retention risk.
Congressional Employees	Deemed essential; continue working; pay may be delayed.	Extended delayed pay; political pressure on leadership offices.
Federal Judiciary	Courts operate briefly on reserve funds; some non-essential cases delayed.	Reserve funds deplete; courts scale back to critical functions; delayed trials, filings.
FEMA	Life-safety missions continue; reimbursement processing slows; new project approvals paused.	Significant backlog in disaster recovery claims; delayed cost recovery for states/localities.
TSA	Essential staff work without pay; stress at checkpoints.	Morale/retention issues grow; operational strain if shutdown prolonged.
USCIS	Fee-funded operations continue; E-Verify and SAVE suspended.	Visa processing continues but DOL labor certification backlog stalls employment-based visas.
DOJ	Criminal prosecutions continue; civil cases may be delayed; DOJ grants halted.	Rising backlog of civil litigation; delays in grant processing for law enforcement.
USDA	WIC nutrition benefits at risk within days; farm loan processing, rural development, research pause.	WIC funds run out in more states; SNAP benefits continue initially but admin functions stall.
HHS	CDC surveillance, NIH grants, SAMHSA programs, CMS discretionary operations delayed.	Backlogs in research funding, slower public health response capacity.
HUD	Housing assistance payments continue if obligated; new grants, inspections, reviews paused.	Renewals delayed; backlog in inspections/environmental reviews grows.
Education (ED)	Student aid processing continues (mandatory funds); discretionary grants, TA paused.	Delays in formula/discretionary programs; backlog in school and university grants.
SBA	7(a), 504, and disaster lending halted; TA paused.	Pipeline delays; small business projects and real estate deals stall.
IRS/Treasury	Refunds, audits, taxpayer services may pause; limited essential operations.	Backlog in returns, compliance actions; reduced taxpayer support.
DOT / FAA	Authorized reimbursements may continue; new grants/waivers paused; FAA inspectors reduced.	Construction/project delays escalate; safety oversight constrained.
EPA	Environmental permitting, Superfund cleanup, enforcement halted.	Backlogs in reviews and enforcement actions; delays in infrastructure projects.
Municipalities	Delayed reimbursements; HUD, DOT, DOJ, HHS grant pauses; permitting delays.	Budget stress; prolonged delays in federal cost shares; capital project slippage.
National Park Service / Smithsonian	Parks, museums, monuments close; tourism revenue drops.	Sustained closures harm local economies tied to tourism.