Washington on One - 11/17/2025

THE LEDE:  They’re back…and not, seemingly, on their best behavior…Indiana rebuffs Trump demand to redistrict, Utah judge gives Dems a blue seat gift… FAA lifts all remaining flight cuts… Trump said yesterday he “may be having some discussions” with Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro as the U.S. military ramps up its presence in the region, “We'll see how that turns out,” Trump told reporters…The federal government is unable to determine the unemployment rate during the month of October because of the government shutdown, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Thursday… Trump reverses course and cuts tariffs on US food imports..In another reversal, in a late Sunday Truth Social post, Trump said House Republicans should vote to release DOJ records on the late convicted sex offender “because we have nothing to hide.”…The Federal Housing Finance Agency has reportedly made a criminal referral for Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), sending information to the Justice Department accusing him of mortgage fraud…Federal THC ban sends hemp companies scrambling…PA’s Senator Fetterman suffers injuries to face from fall, hospitalized… House committee chairs will begin listening sessions with GOP members on the fate of soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act subsidies…The BBC has issued an apology to Trump for its editing of a clip of the president speaking to supporters before the Jan. 6 Capitol attack but disputed his claim of defamation…The FBI denied conservative commentator Tucker Carlson's allegation that the agency lied about the man who attempted to assassinate Trump last year in Pennsylvania, Thomas Matthew Crooks…US Mint ceases production of the penny…

THE WEEK AHEAD:   The House is expected to vote this week on the discharge petition demanding the Justice Department release the full Jeffrey Epstein files, Sunday night POTUS called for its release…Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visits Washington…Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) forces a vote tonight on her non-binding resolution to have the House “disapprove” of Rep. Chuy Garcia (D-Ill.). Garcia retired and engineered his chief of staff to be the only other person on the ballot.  Up in NYC - The U.N. Security Council is set to vote today on a U.S.-drafted resolution on Gaza that leaves the door open to Palestinian statehood — but Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized Israel’s opposition to an independent Palestinian state

MARK UPS / HEARINGS OF NOTE:  Tuesday: The House Financial Services Committee will have a hearing on the future of deposit insurance. The House Budget Committee will have a hearing on oversight of the Congressional Budget Office.  Wednesday: The Senate Finance Committee will have a hearing on nominations, including Arjun Mody to be deputy Social Security commissioner.  The House Administration Committee will have a hearing on the STOCK Act.  The nomination of Kevin E. Lunday to be commandant of the Coast Guard gets a hearing Wednesday in the Senate Commerce Committee.  Thursday: The Senate Finance Committee will have a hearing on a number of nominations, including L. Brent Bozell III to be U.S. ambassador to South Africa.

SO, NOW WHAT?:   Congress returns Monday from the record shutdown, but “normal” isn’t back. Only four work weeks remain in 2025, with a new funding cliff on Jan. 30. Partisan scars are fresh: Democrats are internally split after agreeing to reopen without ACA concessions; Republicans are divided from the White House over a discharge petition to force DOJ to release the Epstein files—likely to get House floor action and create Senate pressure.  Policy fronts to watch:  #1 Funding: Three full-year bills (Agriculture-FDA, MilCon-VA, Legislative Branch) passed with the shutdown deal. Leaders aim to move NDAA in early December and assemble a four-bill package next, but the hardest appropriations (Defense, DHS, Labor-HHS, CJS) remain. Democrats want guardrails to curb White House spending end-runs.  #2 ACA subsidies: Enhanced credits expire Dec. 31. After months of GOP resistance, Democrats see little incentive to cut a quick deal and may leverage the issue into 2026. Expect Republicans to float HSA-focused alternatives; any complex redesign risks execution delays and consumer confusion.  #3 Epstein files: The discharge petition has fractured GOP unity and angered Trump. Unless Speaker Johnson finds an off-ramp, members will be forced on-record; big House margins would trigger Senate maneuvers.  Bottom line: Government is reopening, but the agenda is crowded, timelines are tight, and leverage points (Jan. 30 CR, ACA deadline, Epstein vote) ensure another volatile, leadership-driven December.

PRICES:  President Trump on Friday rolled back parts of his “reciprocal” tariff regime, issuing an executive order exempting more than 100 food and agricultural items—including beef, coffee, fruits, nuts, and spices—from the August levies. The reductions are retroactive to 12:01 a.m. Thursday, Nov. 13. The move marks a notable shift from the earlier no-exceptions stance and follows mounting voter concern over living costs and legal uncertainty after a recent Supreme Court hearing. While easing consumer-facing duties, the administration is leaning more on Section 232 national-security tariffs for steel, aluminum, and autos. Trump has also floated $2,000 rebate checks funded by tariff revenue and opened an antitrust probe into meatpackers amid record beef prices. Grocery and trade groups welcomed the step but urged broader relief. Democrats and some economists cast the reversals as tacit acknowledgment that tariffs raise prices for Americans.

EPSTEIN:  The House will vote Tuesday on a discharge petition directing DOJ to release the full Epstein files. Over the weekend, President Trump urged Republicans to back the Massie–Khanna measure, though most GOP members were already inclined to support it. The White House had previously lobbied Rep. Lauren Boebert to withdraw her signature; she refused, and the petition hit the 218-signature threshold—an embarrassing setback for GOP leadership. Trump’s post largely acknowledges that reality; the only open question is the final vote margin. The measure faces long odds in the Senate, where Republican leaders have no plans to bring it up. Still, Senate Democrats—led by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer—are poised to force the issue with a series of unanimous-consent requests to pass the bill or compel a roll-call vote, ensuring Republicans must publicly object and setting up a round of high-profile procedural clashes.

MTG v TRUMP ( BAD ROMANCE EDITION):  On Friday night, President Trump called for a primary challenge to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.)—a jolt for MAGA given MTG’s early, vocal loyalty. In recent weeks, she’s blistered Trump and GOP leaders over affordability and transparency on the Epstein files. The White House attributes her turn to resentment over Trump not backing her for Senate or governor; she denies it. Aides are irked by her TV hits—especially “The View.” MTG says she’s received death threats since the split. On CNN Sunday, she urged an end to “toxic” politics and expressed regret for past rhetoric—a striking break from her brand. Substantively, the clash reflects a base-versus-White House rift over Epstein disclosure: MTG signed the House petition; Trump insists he defines MAGA. Politically, it’s a warning shot—if Trump will turn on MTG, he can turn on any Republican who crosses him.

REDISTRICTION:  Indiana won’t redraw its congressional map this year, denying Republicans two anticipated pickups. Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray said there are “not enough votes,” adding the chamber will not reconvene in December. The GOP—under heavy pressure from President Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Gov. Mike Braun—had eyed eliminating Democratic Reps. André Carson’s Indianapolis seat and Frank Mrvan’s northwest Indiana seat. Bray’s stance may effectively end the push, though Trump allies warned of political fallout; adviser Chris LaCivita hinted at Bray’s “retirement.” The decision bolsters Democrats’ recent redistricting wins in California, Utah, and Ohio, with Virginia looming. Republicans’ main remaining target is Florida, where Gov. Ron DeSantis signaled January action to potentially draw up to five new GOP seats. Separately, a pending Supreme Court ruling in a Louisiana Voting Rights Act case could reshape Section 2 enforcement and minority-majority districts, but timing and 2026 impacts are uncertain…. In Utah, Democrats were delivered something of a gift when a judge handed down a new map that will see a safe blue seat for the first time in decades in the deep-red state, where Democrats haven’t sent one of their own to Washington since 2021.

VENEUELA:  Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Thursday unveiled “Operation Southern Spear,” aimed at stopping “narco-terrorists” he says threaten American lives. The announcement followed the 20th strike on an alleged drug-trafficking vessel in the Caribbean, as tensions with Venezuela escalate.  Hegseth, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine, and other senior commanders briefed President Trump at the White House on regional military options, including potential land strikes in Venezuela, according to officials.  Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, in a CNN interview, urged Americans and Venezuelans to “unite to ensure peace,” warning against “endless” and “unjust” wars and citing interventions in Libya and Afghanistan. Asked his message to Trump, Maduro replied: “peace.”

BOAT STRIKES:  House Republicans are lining up behind President Trump’s lethal strikes on suspected drug-running boats in the Caribbean and Pacific after a delayed briefing. Senior GOP chairs said they’re satisfied with the legal basis and see no need for further congressional action. “I’m happy with that [legal justification],” said Intelligence Chair Rick Crawford; Foreign Affairs Chair Brian Mast added, “I couldn’t be more satisfied,” likening cartel interdictions to countering “chemical warfare.”  The administration last week made an Office of Legal Counsel opinion and related documents available for member review. Since early September, strikes have destroyed about 21 boats and killed at least 80 people.  Democrats sharply disagree. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi said he hasn’t heard “a good justification,” and aides say the White House hasn’t provided a promised list of designated cartels. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth briefed select lawmakers; the Senate later rejected a War Powers resolution. Hegseth has dubbed the campaign “Operation Southern Spear.”

HEALTHCARE:  State-run ACA exchanges say they can quickly update premiums if Congress passes a clean extension of enhanced subsidies next month. But broader GOP changes could delay filings. “If they start to change the contribution amounts … that sends us back to the drawing board,” said Lindsay Lang, who leads Rhode Island’s exchange.  Despite those warnings, Republicans are advancing HSA-centered alternatives backed by President Trump. House Ways and Means GOP staff are circulating a proposal from Reps. Kat Cammack and Greg Steube to let exchange enrollees receive part of their assistance in tax-advantaged HSAs; members are slated for a briefing early this week.  In the Senate, Republicans are promoting similar ideas. The Finance Committee will hear from Brian Blase of the Paragon Health Institute at a health-costs hearing Wednesday, and Sen. Bill Cassidy is touting Trump’s HSA approach. Exchanges caution that complex changes would add time, reprogramming, and consumer confusion.

WATCH THIS SPACE:  MAHA’s health influencers are pivoting from food to pharma, per a new Baron analysis of 200+ posts from 10 high-reach accounts. In October, they posted about pharmaceutical companies more than twice as often as food—reversing May, when food content outpaced pharma by roughly one-third. Leading voices include “Chief Nerd,” Jeffrey Tucker (Brownstone Institute), and Sayer Ji (MAHA Action adviser). The shift complicates HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s coalition: curbing ultra-processed foods draws bipartisan backing, while vaccine-related content remains polarizing. Baron’s Riley Kruse warns the alliance is “very delicate,” and keeping both camps satisfied will be difficult. Baron adds that the most influential profiles post frequently, project anti-establishment credibility, and are rewarded for edgier content. As director Jeremy Furchtgott notes, these influencers focus less on health-care costs and more on defining “what is actually healthy,” diverging from earlier conservative health influencers.

NDAA:  This week is pivotal for the NDAA as House and Senate leaders race to finalize a compromise before Thanksgiving, targeting early-December floor votes. Both chambers are in session through Friday (an earlier exit is possible). HASC Chair Mike Rogers says negotiators face fewer outstanding issues than in recent years, despite weeks lost to the 43-day shutdown. The main hurdle is the topline: the Senate’s $925B plan is $32B above the House-passed bill, which aligns with President Trump’s $893B request. Leaders are downplaying the gap as an appropriations question; appropriators now have until Jan. 30 to fund the Pentagon. Rogers favors higher defense spending but is honoring his commitment to the House number tied to $150B in reconciliation. HASC Ranking Member Adam Smith calls the gap “a problem” but expects appropriators to resolve it, likely landing near the president’s budget.

MOOD MUSIC:  We don’t know, kinda feeling the Kink’s this morning – Enjoy  Happy Monday.