Washington On One - 10/20/2025

THE LEDE:  Shutdown will go into a fourth week, surpassing the longer of the two 1995-96 shutdowns, with only the 2018-19 impasse — also under President Trump — being longer.  (Not for nothing but maybe some records shouldn’t be broken)…House cancels votes for fourth week…Zelensky comes to DC talks Tomahawks, peace prospects…RIF action by Administration blocked by Federal Judge…Speaking of RIF’s, reports say 4100 Federal Employees have been impacted with roughly 6000 more job in jeopardy as the Admin seeks to hit its goal of 10,000… At least 30 outlets declined to sign new Pentagon media rules and turned in their badges, citing restrictions on seeking “unauthorized” info…Young Republican group-chat leaked, hilarity does not ensue… After threatening 100% tariffs, President Trump said Friday those levels are “not sustainable,” while still defending them as a response to China’s rare-earth curbs and confirming plans to meet Xi in South Korea in two weeks… Beijing accused the U.S. of discriminatory trade practices and said it will publish an assessment of U.S. compliance across 11 areas; WTO’s director-general urged both sides to de-escalate…Trump calls Colombia’s Petro an ‘illegal drug dealer’ and announces an end to US aid to the country…The administration’s latest drug pricing pact with EMD Serono slashes fertility drug costs, ties into a new FDA fast-track voucher and nudges employers to cover IVF benefits, but stops short of the president’s campaign pledge to make the treatment free…Trump extends auto tariff relief, imposes truck and bus duties…

THE WEEK AHEAD:  The Senate returns today and will again vote on the House-passed continuing resolution (H.R. 5371). Judicial confirmations are also likely: after a 62–34 vote to limit debate on Harold D. Mooty III (N.D. Ala.), a final vote is expected. Cloture has been filed on Anne-Leigh Gaylord Moe (M.D. Fla.), William W. Mercer (D. Mont.), and Stephen Chad Meredith (E.D. Ky.).  A bipartisan trio—Sens. Tim Kaine, Rand Paul, and Adam Schiff—will push for a vote on a War Powers resolution to bar U.S. armed forces from engaging within or against Venezuela.  Separately, senators agreed to vote by month’s end on resolutions to terminate the national emergencies underpinning tariff actions against Canada (S.J.Res. 77) and Brazil (S.J.Res. 81).  The House remains out but members are on 48-hour notice to return. The chamber’s next pro forma session is tomorrow.

WHERE ARE WE?:   Senate Majority Leader John Thune reiterated he’d allow a Senate vote to extend enhanced ACA premium subsidies in exchange for reopening the government. Senate Democrats rejected a standalone vote, insisting any subsidy deal be included in a funding bill.  Asked if he’d permit a House vote on subsidies, Johnson said that wouldn’t reopen the government and called the issue “complex” requiring fuller negotiations.  What’s becoming clear is that it’s rather optimistic to think that House Republicans would simply return to Capitol Hill and pass an extension of the subsidies without vigorous debate and a drastic overhaul of the program.  President Trump continues to let law makers find a path out.

SHUTDOWN IMPACTS:  Federal employees will miss their first full paycheck this week. The Oct. 24 payroll (covering Oct. 4–18) reflects a period entirely under shutdown. The Congressional Federal Credit Union is offering “furlough solutions.” There are growing fears of air-traffic–controller no-shows, risking further aviation snarls. Small-business lending and farm loans are stalled with SBA and USDA offices shut.  Former OMB Director Russell Vought has threatened 10,000 layoffs; roughly 4,200 federal workers have already been laid off during the shutdown.  Officials say tariff revenue is backstopping WIC, but warning signs persist. States have cautioned that November 2025 SNAP benefits may be delayed and that funds loaded before Oct. 31 may not be usable after Nov. 1.

WHEN WILL THIS END?:   This clip captures your editors current feelings perfectly – CLICK HERE

PENTAGON PRESS:  Most major U.S. outlets surrendered their Pentagon credentials this week rather than sign new access rules that press groups called unprecedented and punitive. Reporters dismantled workspaces and left the building on Oct. 15 after the Defense Department, under Secretary Pete Hegseth, required agreements allowing badge revocation for seeking even some unclassified information and effectively limiting coverage to pre-approved material.   Reuters, AP, CBS, Fox, CNN, the New York Times, and others refused to comply; CBS said it ended a six-decade presence at the Pentagon. One America News was reported as the lone outlet agreeing to the terms. The Pentagon defended the policy as necessary for security; the Pentagon Press Association called it a blow to transparency and the First Amendment.   Internationally, the rules drew criticism as some foreign outlets briefly considered signing before reversing under public pressure. Despite losing physical access, defense reporters say they will continue remote and field reporting on the department.

AUTO TARIFFS:  President Trump signed a proclamation imposing 25% tariffs on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks and parts and a 10% tariff on buses, effective Nov. 1. The move, issued under Section 232 (national security), coincides with an extension of a key tariff offset for U.S.-assembled vehicles through 2030 (worth 3.75% of vehicle value) to blunt parts duties and give supply chains time to reshore. A similar offset for trucks is planned.  Truck imports qualifying under USMCA are exempt; buses are not. The administration also plans a separate offset for U.S.-made engines used in passenger vehicles and medium/heavy trucks, to begin later.  The package balances protectionism with relief for domestic production. Automakers and suppliers had warned sweeping tariffs could raise costs and ripple through construction and shipping. The USMCA carveout could soften effects on Mexico-built models (e.g., Ram pickups) among roughly 245,000 medium/heavy trucks imported last year.  The actions expand Trump’s broader tariff regime (steel, copper, lumber, furniture). These sectoral 232 tariffs are separate from country-based emergency levies now under court challenge and headed to the Supreme Court. Extending the offset is a win for U.S. automakers who argued prior policies advantaged certain foreign competitors.

GAZA:  Weekend violence has put President Trump’s peace push on a knife’s edge. Lead negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were due back in the region last night, and Vice President J.D. Vance said he could join as soon as tomorrow: “Somebody from the administration is certainly going to be over there in the next few days. It might be me.”  Trump insisted the cease-fire is holding despite clashes that killed two IDF soldiers and prompted brief Israeli airstrikes in Gaza. He described recent incidents as “rambunctious,” adding he does not believe Hamas leadership directed them. Vance similarly cautioned that any durable peace will involve “fits and starts.”  Tensions also rose in the West Bank, where widely shared videos appeared to show settler violence against Palestinians. In a positive development, aid trucks are expected to reenter Gaza starting today following pressure from the Trump administration.

UKRAINE:  President Trump pressed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept territorial concessions to Russia. Trump also declined to provide Tomahawk missiles and floated security guarantees for both Kyiv and Moscow—comments the Ukrainian delegation found confusing. After the meeting, Trump publicly urged a cease-fire “on the battle lines,” later telling reporters, “You leave it the way it is right now… they can negotiate later,” while denying he told Zelensky to cede all of Donbas. A third source said Trump proposed a “deal where we are” after Zelensky rejected giving up land. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance said Sunday that no decision has been made on Tomahawks. Elements of the talks were first reported by the Financial Times.  Two sources said U.S. officials repeatedly raised a territorial swap—mirroring terms Putin outlined in a Thursday call. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff was described as among the most forceful advocates. Ukrainians warned that surrendering remaining areas of Donetsk and Luhansk would be strategic “suicide.”  Trump said he plans to meet Putin in Budapest; aides indicated Secretary of State Marco Rubio would confer with Sergei Lavrov to prepare. A prior Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska yielded no breakthroughs.

SOUTHCOM:  Adm. Alvin Holsey will retire as commander of U.S. Southern Command at year’s end—less than a year into a post that typically runs about three years. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the move without offering a reason or naming a successor.   Holsey’s departure comes amid heightened scrutiny of U.S. maritime strikes on small boats the administration labels “narco-terrorists” near Venezuela; at least five vessels have been destroyed with multiple fatalities since early September. The operations have drawn bipartisan questions about legal authorities and rules of engagement.   Holsey, a career Navy officer who assumed command in November 2024, had recently been engaging regional partners as the Pentagon expanded presence in the Caribbean.

VENEZUELA:  President Trump used an expletive Friday to warn Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro against provoking the United States, as his administration escalates military action against regional drug trafficking.  “He doesn’t want to f--- with the U.S.,” Trump said at the White House during a lunch with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He added that Maduro had “offered everything” in diplomatic talks that Trump said he halted last week.  Trump’s remarks followed claims that Maduro proposed granting the U.S. a dominant stake in Venezuela’s oil and mineral wealth and that Caracas floated a plan for Maduro’s eventual departure to ease U.S. pressure.  Trump confirmed he authorized the CIA to expand covert operations in Venezuela, raising the prospect of direct action against Maduro. The Venezuelan president—indicted in the U.S. in 2020 on narcotrafficking charges—is widely viewed internationally as illegitimate.  U.S. Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Marco Rubio increased a reward to $50 million for information leading to Maduro’s arrest or conviction. Rubio is seen as a key driver of the effort to remove Maduro, while Trump says his priority is stopping drug trafficking and illegal immigration.

COLOMBIA: President Donald Trump said Sunday he will end U.S. funding to Colombia, calling President Gustavo Petro “an illegal drug dealer” who “does nothing” to curb narcotics production. In a Truth Social post—later corrected after misspelling “Colombia”—Trump wrote: “AS OF TODAY, THESE PAYMENTS… WILL NO LONGER BE MADE,” and warned the U.S. would “close up” drug operations itself. Colombia’s defense minister, Pedro Sánchez, defended Petro and the country’s counternarcotics record.  Hours later, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced a new U.S. strike in Caribbean waters on a vessel allegedly tied to the ELN guerrilla group, killing three. The operation followed Petro’s accusation that a prior U.S. strike amounted to “assassination”; two survivors from that incident were repatriated to Colombia and Ecuador. At least 32 people have been killed in U.S. strikes since early September.  Tensions were already high: in September, Washington decertified Colombia on counternarcotics cooperation (while waiving aid cuts). The State Department also revoked Petro’s U.S. visa during UNGA over remarks urging U.S. soldiers to “disobey” Trump’s orders.  Petro identified a Colombian fisherman, Alejandro Carranza, as killed in a Sept. 16 strike and alleged a sovereignty violation. Bogotá media reported another Colombian survivor in serious condition; Ecuador confirmed an injured national was repatriated and not charged domestically. 

CARIBBEAN SEA:  The latest U.S. strike in the Caribbean on an alleged drug-smuggling boat left multiple survivors, with two detainees now held aboard a U.S. Navy ship, according to multiple outlets. Two people were killed in Thursday’s operation, Reuters reported, which first broke the news Thursday night. The incident appears to be the first engagement since the Trump administration’s Caribbean campaign began in early September—targeting suspected cartel vessels off Venezuela—that resulted in survivors being taken into custody. Authorities have not released identities or details on recovered contraband.

NO KINGS:  Millions rallied nationwide on Saturday under the “No Kings” banner to oppose President Trump’s policies and perceived authoritarianism. Organizers said more than 7 million people joined 2,700+ events across all 50 states—the largest single-day turnout since Trump’s return to office—while major cities, including Washington, D.C., New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, reported crowds in the tens to hundreds of thousands.   Events were largely peaceful and carnival-like—costumes, music, and speakers—though counter-protest pockets appeared in some locations.   Republican leaders blasted the demonstrations. House Speaker Mike Johnson called them a “hate-America rally” and linked organizers to extremist groups; he reiterated those attacks on Sunday shows.   The White House’s online response intensified criticism after official and allied accounts circulated AI-generated imagery and video depicting Trump as “King Trump,” including a clip of him dropping waste on protesters from a jet—material widely denounced by opponents as inflammatory.